AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8]

Principal Investigator: Dr. Caroline Orchiston

Administration and Outreach: Alice Lake-Hammond

Project Overview

As Science Lead for AF8, Caroline works with a wide team of Alpine Fault scientists and emergency management practitioners to improve the way New Zealand will respond and recover from a future magnitude 8 earthquake on the Alpine Fault, New Zealand. The lessons learned from this work programme can also be applied to a range of other disruptive events, because building strong networks in communities, response agencies and Universities is key to societal resilience.

While we can't predict when earthquakes will occur, scientific research has shown that the Alpine Fault has an unusually regular history of producing large earthquakes. Over the last 8000 years, the Alpine Fault has ruptured 27 times, on average that's every 300 years. The last significant quake on the Alpine Fault was in 1717. The next severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault is likely to occur within the lifetime of most of us, or our children.

Research conducted by the University of Canterbury, University of Otago and GNS Science has assessed some of the environmental impacts we can expect from the next earthquake of magnitude 8 or greater on the Alpine Fault. Until now, however, there has been no comprehensive study of the impacts a rupture would have on people living in communities across the South Island and our infrastructure.

AF8 is an award-winning programme of scientific modelling, response planning and community engagement designed to address that knowledge gap. It is a collaboration between the six South Island Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) groups and science, including research from six universities and Crown Research Institutes, emergency services, lifelines, iwi, health authorities and many other partner agencies. The programme is managed by Emergency Management Southland.

AF8 aims to share the Alpine Fault hazard and impact science and preparedness information widely, through outreach and engagement activities, to increase awareness, enable conversation and build societal preparedness to natural hazard events in the South Island.

This project began in 2016 and has been refunded each year broadening its focus.

2016-17 – Scientific modelling to develop the most credible scenario for a rupture on the Alpine Fault

This work began in August 2016. Thirty specialists from New Zealand Universities, Crown Research Institutes and consultancies came together as a multi-disciplinary team under the leadership of Dr Caroline Orchiston. They reviewed what was already known about the Alpine Fault and developed a scenario for the next significant earthquake and the foreseeable impacts, which then formed the basis of planning for a coordinated response in the week immediately following the next rupture.

These science workshops were followed by a series of planning workshops across the South Island and in Wellington. These introduced the Alpine Fault earthquake scenario to each Civil Defence Emergency Management (CDEM) Group and their partner agencies, and kickstarted local discussions about the practicalities and challenges of responding to a significant earthquake.

2017-18 – Development of the SAFER Framework

The South Island Alpine Fault Earthquake Response [SAFER] Framework applies the scientific scenario to a coordinated response across the South Island to a significant earthquake on the Alpine Fault. The Framework covers the first seven days after the quake. It assumes that in the initial stages of response, each region will react independently according to its immediate needs but in a coordinated manner enabled by the common approach and priorities established through the SAFER Framework.

2018-19 – Engagement, planning and preparing

The SAFER Framework was launched in October 2018. The document enables each CDEM Group and partner agency to focus on detailed preparation and planning. That means engaging our communities, iwi, lifelines agencies, emergency services, businesses and a host of others to plan and prepare in a coordinated way for a severe earthquake on the Alpine Fault. The result will be a coordinated, mutually supportive, sustainable response across the South Island, to minimise loss of life and provide for the immediate and short-term needs of our affected communities.

2019-20 – Building our collective resilience

AF8 will transition to an ongoing programme of planning, preparedness and activity with the aims of sharing the Alpine Fault hazard and impact science and preparedness information widely, through outreach and engagement activities, to increase awareness, enable conversation and build societal preparedness to natural hazard events in the South Island.

For more information view AF8 [Alpine Fault magnitude 8]