Dr Patrick Graham, Our people, University of Otago, Christchurch

Honorary Senior Research Fellow

MSc, PhD

Research Interests

Bayesian methods
Causal inference
Population health: measurement and dynamics
Confidentiality
Institutional Performance

Selected Projects

2006 [HRC] Equity, variation and convergence in surgeons' clinical judgements of priority
2006 [HRC] Improving Performance in New Zealand Health Care: Hospital Outcomes
2006 [Statistics New Zealand] Improved Methodology for Constructing, Evaluating and Analysing synthetic datasets.
2005 [Statistics New Zealand] Model-Based Synthetic Data-files
2005 [CMRF] Cytomegalovirus, Epstein-Barr virus and risk of breast cancer. $30,128 over 1 year (Principal Investigator: A. Richardson)
2004 [University of Otago] Hierarchical Bayesian Approaches to Smoothing and Confidentialising Census and Survey Data
2003 [HRC] Coronary Artery Bypass Surgery - evaluation of the validity of the prioritisation score and the impact of waiting. (Co-Principal Investigators: Mary Seddon and Rod Jackson)

Student Supervision

The mental health of Pacific people and their use of health services and practice for seeking help.
[PhD, in progress] Jesse Kokaua
(Co-supervisors: Elisabeth Wells and Richie Poulton)
Drinking-water quality and gastrointestinal disease in New Zealand.
Andrew Ball, [PhD] 2010
(Co-supervisor: Cheryl Brunton )
Parametric potential outcome survival models for causal inference.
Gong, Zhaojing [PhD] 2008
(Primary supervisor with Mike Steel [Canty U] Irene Hudson [U SAust] as co-supervisors)

Publications

Darlow, B. A., Graham, P. J., & Rojas-Reyes, M. X. (2016). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birth weight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 8, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub4 Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. (2015). [Review of the book Bayesian methods in health economics]. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 57(3), 431-433. doi: 10.1111/anzs.12122 Journal - Research Other

Davis, P., Milne, B., Parker, K., Hider, P., Lay-Yee, R., Cumming, J., & Graham, P. (2013). Efficiency, effectiveness, equity (E³): Evaluating hospital performance in three dimensions. Health Policy, 112(1-2), 19-27. doi: 10.1016/j.healthpol.2013.02.008 Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Martin, G., Fraser, J., Cumming, J., Williams, H., Davidson, A., … Roake, J., & van Rij, A. (2012). Equity of access and variation in general surgeons' clinical judgements of patient priority. International Journal of Person Centered Medicine, 2(4), 883-898. doi: 10.5750/ijpcm.v2i4.298 Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Hider, P., Cumming, J., Raymont, A., & Finlayson, M. (2012). Variation in New Zealand hospital outcomes: Combining hierarchical Bayesian modeling and propensity score methods for hospital performance comparisons. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 12(1), 1-28. doi: 10.1007/s10742-012-0079-9 Journal - Research Article

2016

Journal - Research Article

2015

Journal - Research Other

Graham, P. (2015). [Review of the book Bayesian methods in health economics]. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 57(3), 431-433. doi: 10.1111/anzs.12122

2013

Journal - Research Article

2012

Journal - Research Article

Raymont, A., Graham, P., Hider, P. N., Finlayson, M. P., Fraser, J., & Cumming, J. M. (2012). Variation in the adoption of patient safety practices among New Zealand district health boards. Australian Health Review, 36(2), 163-168. doi: 10.1071/ah10972

2011

Journal - Research Article

Quan, H., Li, B., Couris, C. M., Fushimi, K., Graham, P., Hider, P., … Sundararajan, V. (2011). Updating and validating the Charlson comorbidity index and score for risk adjustment in hospital discharge abstracts using data from 6 countries. American Journal of Epidemiology, 173(6), 676-682. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwq433

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2011). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short- and long-term morbidity in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 10, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub3

2010

Journal - Research Article

Cox, B., Richardson, A., Graham, P., Gislefoss, R. E., Jellum, E., & Rollag, H. (2010). Breast cancer, cytomegalovirus and Epstein-Barr virus: A nested case-control study. British Journal of Cancer, 102, 1665-1669. doi: 10.1038/sj.bjc.6605675

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Kokaua, J., Wells, E., & Graham, P. (2010). Use of a hierarchical Bayes model for complex surveys to estimate prevalence of mental disorders among four ethnic groups in Te Rau Hinengaro: The New Zealand Mental Health Survey. In M. Taumoepeau, C. Matthewson, G. Burnett & P. Vakaoti (Eds.), Proceedings of the Pacific Postgraduate Symposium: Pacific Voices VII. (pp. 31). Dunedin, New Zealand: Pacific Islands Centre, University of Otago. [Abstract]

2009

Journal - Research Article

Young, J., Graham, P., & Penny, R. (2009). Using Bayesian networks to create synthetic data. Journal of Official Statistics, 25(4), 549-567.

Blakely, T., Richardson, K., Young, J., Graham, P., Tobias, M., Callister, P., … Atkinson, J. (2009). Does mortality vary between Pacific groups? Estimating Samoan, Cook Island Mäori, Tongan and Niuean mortality rates using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Official Statistics Research Series, 5. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research.aspx

Graham, P., Rodnyanskiy, L., & Henley, L. (2009). Confidentialising microdata using multiple imputation: Development and evaluation of a non-parametric hierarchical Bayesian imputation model for numerical data. Official Statistics Research Series, 5. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research.aspx

Richardson, K., Blakely, T., Young, J., Graham, P., & Tobias, M. (2009). Do ethnic and socio-economic inequalities in mortality vary by region in New Zealand? An application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Social Science & Medicine, 69(8), 1252-1260. doi: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2009.07.036

Graham, P., Young, J., & Penny, R. (2009). Multiply imputed synthetic data: Evaluation of hierarchical Bayesian imputation models. Journal of Official Statistics, 25(2), 245-268.

Rumball-Smith, J., Hider, P., & Graham, P. (2009). The readmission rate as an indicator of the quality of elective surgical inpatient care for the elderly in New Zealand. New Zealand Medical Journal, 122(1289). Retrieved from http://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal/122-1289/3461/content.pdf

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Kokaua, J., Wells, E., & Graham, P. (2009). Comparison of models for analysing rates of mental health service use among Cook Islanders in New Zealand, accounting for missing ethnic group. In C. Matthewson & M. Taumoepeau (Eds.), Proceedings of the Pacific Postgraduate Symposium: Pacific Voices VI. (pp. 27). Dunedin, New Zealand: Pacific Islands Centre, University of Otago. [Abstract]

Richardson, K., Blakely, T., Young, J., Graham, P., & Tobias, M. (2009). Do ethnic and socio-economic inequalities in mortality vary by region in New Zealand? Australasian Epidemiologist. 16(2), (pp. 36). [Abstract]

Graham, P. (2009). Bayesian theory and methods for generalisation. Australasian Epidemiologist. 16(2), (pp. 79). [Abstract]

Blakely, T., Richardson, K., Young, J., Graham, P., Tobias, M., Callister, P., & Didham, R. (2009). Does mortality vary between pacific groups? Estimating Samoan, Cook Island Māori, Tongan and Niuean mortality rates using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Australasian Epidemiologist. 16(2), (pp. 55-56). [Abstract]

2008

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Young, J., & Penny, R. (2008). Methods for creating synthetic data. Official Statistics Research Series, 3. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research/series/vol-3.htm

Anderson, N. G., Notley, E., Graham, P., & McEwing, R. (2008). Reproducibility of sonographic assessment of fetal liver length in diabetic pregnancies. Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology, 31(5), 529-534. doi: 10.1002/uog.5298

Gee, P., Gilbert, M., Richardson, S., Moore, G., Paterson, S., & Graham, P. (2008). Toxicity from the recreational use of 1-benzylpiperazine. Clinical Toxicology, 46(9), 802-807. doi: 10.1080/15563650802307602

Graham, P. (2008). Intelligent smoothing using hierarchical Bayesian models. Epidemiology, 19(3), 493-495. doi: 10.1097/EDE.0b013e31816b7859

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Graham, P., Hider, P., Gong, Z., Cumming, J., Fraser, J., Raymont, A., Finlayson, M., & Coster, G. (2008). Variation in New Zealand public hospital outcomes, 2002 - 2005. New Zealand Medical Journal, 121(1271). Retrieved from http://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal/121-1271/2990/content.pdf

2007

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., & Penny, R. (2007). Multiply imputed synthetic data files. Official Statistics Research Series, 1. Retrieved from http://www.statisphere.govt.nz/official-statistics-research/series/vol-1.htm

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2007). Vitamin A supplementation to prevent mortality and short and long-term morbidity in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 4, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501.pub2

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Khan, N., Wilkinson, T., Davis, P., Graham, P., Sellman, D., & Keeling, S. (2007). Drinking patterns among older people in the community in New Zealand. Nutrition & Dietetics. 64(Suppl. 3), (pp. S85). doi: 10.1111/j.1747-0080.2007.00216.x

2006

Journal - Research Article

Young, J., Graham, P., & Blakely, T. (2006). Modeling the relation between socioeconomic status and mortality in a mixture of majority and minority ethnic groups. American Journal of Epidemiology, 164(3), 282-291.

2005

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P. (2005). Hierarchical Bayesian modelling of social variation in the age dependence of disability prevalence. Australian & New Zealand Journal of Statistics, 47(4), 401-424. doi: 10.1111/j.1467-842X.2005.00405.x

Darlow, B. A., Buss, H., McGill, F., Fletcher, L., Graham, P., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2005). Vitamin C supplementation in very preterm infants: A randomised controlled trial. Archives of Disease in Childhood: Fetal & Neonatal Edition, 90(2), F117-F122. doi: 10.1136/adc.2004.056440

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Full paper

Graham, P., Young, J., Blakely, T., Atkinson, J., & Penny, R. (2005). Using hierarchical Bayesian models to explore intra-ethnic social variation in health outcomes: Preliminary results of an analysis of income-mortality associations in the New Zealand Census-Mortality Study. Proceedings of the IAOS Satellite Meeting on Measuring Small and Indigenous Populations. Wellington, New Zealand: Statistics New Zealand. Retrieved from http://www.stats.govt.nz/NR/rdonlyres/40FB7FD8-1398-4413-B4CA-9E12F8349AAE/0/PAPER131.pdf

Gong, Z., Hudson, I., & Graham, P. (2005). A Bayesian Causal Cox Model (CCM) for all-or-nothing compliance. In A. R. Francis, K. M. Matawie, A. Oshlack & G. K. Smyth (Eds.), Proceedings of the 20th International Workshop on Statistical Modelling: Statistical solutions to modern problems. (pp. 227-230). [Full Paper]

Working Paper; Discussion Paper; Technical Report

Graham, P., & Penny, R. (2005). Multiply imputed synthetic data files. Wellington, New Zealand: Statistics New Zealand. Retrieved from http://www.stats.govt.nz/about-us/official-statistics-research/funded-research/2004-05-reports.htm

2004

Journal - Research Article

Graham, P., Blakely, T., Davis, P., Sporle, A., & Pearce, N. (2004). Compression, expansion, or dynamic equilibrium? The evolution of health expectancy in New Zealand. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 58, 659-666.

Graham, P. J. (2004). A note on the use of sensitivity analysis to explore the potential impact of declining institutional care utilisation on disability prevalence. Population Health Metrics, 2(3). Retrieved from http://www.pophealthmetrics.com/content/2/1/3

Richardson, A., Graham, P., Brown, T., Smale, P., & Cox, B. (2004). Breast cancer detection rates, and standardised detection ratios for prevalence screening in the New Zealand breast cancer screening programme. Journal of Medical Screening, 11(2), 65-69.

2003

Chapter in Book - Research

Davis, P. B., Mathers, C., & Graham, P. (2003). Health expectancy in Australia and New Zealand. In J. M. Robine, C. Jaggar, C. D. Mathers, E. M. Crimmins & R. M. Suzman (Eds.), Determining health expectancies. (pp. 391-408). England: John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Journal - Research Article

Hossain, M. M., Graham, P. J., Gower, S. E., & Davis, P. B. (2003). Hierarchical generalised linear models with time-dependent clustering: Assessing the effect of health sector reform on patient outcomes in New Zealand. Health Services & Outcomes Research Methodology, 4, 169-186.

Richards, D. A., Toop, L. J., & Graham, P. J. (2003). Do clinical practice education groups result in sustained change in GP prescribing? Family Practice, 20(2), 199-206.

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Graham, P. J., Han, D. Y., & Moir, C. L. (2003). Cause-specific and total mortality in the Canterbury (New Zealand) insulin-treated Diabetic Registry population: a 15-year follow-up study. Diabetic Medicine, 20(3), 191-197.

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Darlow, B. A., Buss, I. H., McGill, F. M., Mogridge, N., Graham, P., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2003). Optimal vitamin C supplementation in very preterm infants: A randomised controlled trial of three different regimes. Pediatric Research. 53. [Abstract]

2002

Journal - Research Article

Abel, G. M., Plumridge, E. W., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Peers, networks or relationships: Strategies for understanding social dynamics as determinants of smoking behaviour. Drugs, 9(4), 325-338.

Khan, N., Davis, P. B., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Drinking patterns among older people in the community: Hidden from medical attention? New Zealand Medical Journal, 115, 72-75.

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Full paper

Darlow, B. A., Buss, H., McGill, F. M., Mogridge, N., Han, D. Y., Graham, P. J., & Winterbourn, C. C. (2002). Optimal vitamin C supplementation in very preterm infants: a randomised controlled trial of three different regimes. Proceedings of the 4th Annual Congress of the Perinatal Society of Australia and New Zealand. Christchurch. [Full Paper]

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Khan, N., Davis, P. B., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Alcohol use and misuse among older people in the community: Hidden problem. Proceedings of the Scientific Meeting and 32nd Annual General Meeting of the Christchurch Medical Research Society. 115(1157), (pp. U27). Christchurch: New Zealand Medical Journal. Retrieved from http://www.nzma.org.nz/journal/115-1157/27

Khan, N., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2002). Patterns of alcohol use and misuse among elderly rest home residents in Christchurch, New Zealand. The Proceedings of the Scientific meeting and 32nd Annual General meeting of the Christchurch Medical Research Society. 115(1157), (pp. U27). Christchurch: New Zealand Medical Journal. Retrieved from http://www.nzma.org.nz/journal/115-1157/27

2001

Journal - Research Article

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Coope, P. A., Graham, P. J., & Moir, C. L. (2001). Age at diagnosis, glycaemic control and the development of retinopathy in a population-based cohort of type 1 diabetic subjects in Canterbury, New Zealand. Diabetes Research & Clinical Practice, 52, 125-131.

Weir, R., Williams, D., & Graham, P. J. (2001). Notification of gastrointestinal illness by Canterbury and West Coast general practitioners. New Zealand Medical Journal, 114, 307-309.

Khan, N., Wilkinson, T. J., Sellman, J. D., & Graham, P. J. (2001). Patterns of alcohol use and misuse among elderly rest home residents in Christchurch. New Zealand Medical Journal, 114, 58-61.

Awarded Doctoral Degree

Graham, P. J. (2001). Bayesian causal inference for epidemiological and clinical studies (PhD). University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand.

2000

Journal - Research Article

Darlow, B. A., Winterbourn, C. C., Inder, T. E., Graham, P. J., Harding, J. E., Weston, P. J., Austin, N. C., Elder, D. E., Mogridge, N., Buss, I. H., & Sluis, K. B. (2000). The effect of selenium supplementation on outcome in very low birth weight infants: A randomized controlled trial. Journal of Pediatrics, 136, 473-480.

Graham, P. J., & Jackson, R. (2000). A comparison of primary and proxy respondent reports of habitual physical activity, using k statistics and log-linear models. Journal of Epidemiology & Biostatistics, 5(4), 255-265.

Graham, P. J. (2000). Bayesian inference for a generalized population attributable fraction: The impact of early vitamin A levels on chronic lung disease in very low birthweight infants. Statistics in Medicine, 19, 937-956.

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (2000). Vitamin A supplementation for preventing morbidity and mortality in very low birthweight infants (Review). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 2, CD000501. doi: 10.1002/14651858.CD000501

1999

Journal - Research Article

Davis, P. B., Graham, P. J., & Pearce, N. E. (1999). Health expectancy in New Zealand, 1981-1991: social variations and trends in a period of rapid social and economic change. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 53, 519-527.

Richardson, A. K., Cox, B., & Graham, P. J. (1999). Should there be a breast cancer risk chart for New Zealand women? New Zealand Medical Journal, 112, 129-130.

1998

Journal - Research Article

Hickling, K. G., Wright, T., Laubscher, K., Town, G. I., Tie, A., Graham, P. J., … A'Court, G. (1998). Extreme hypoventilation reduces ventilator induced lung injury during ventilation with low PEEP in saline lavaged rabbits. Critical Care Medicine, 26(10), 1690-1697.

Graham, P. J., & Bull, B. (1998). Approximate standard errors and confidence intervals for indices of positive and negative agreement. Journal of Clinical Epidemiology, 51, 763-771.

Inder, T. E., Graham, P. J., Winterbourn, C. C., Austin, N. C., & Darlow, B. A. (1998). Plasma vitamin A levels in the very low birthweight infant - relationship to respiratory outcome. Early Human Development, 52, 155-168.

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Moir, C. L., & Graham, P. J. (1998). Lipid but not glycaemic parameters predict total mortality from type 2 diabetes mellitus in Canterbury, New Zealand. Diabetic Medicine, 15(5), 386-392.

Florkowski, C. M., Scott, R. S., Moir, C. L., & Graham, P. J. (1998). Clinical and biochemical outcomes of type 2 diabetes mellitus in Canterbury, New Zealand: a 6-year cohort study. Diabetes Research & Clinical Practice, 40(3), 167-173.

Journal - Research Other

Darlow, B. A., & Graham, P. J. (1998). Vitamin A supplementation in very low birthweight infants (Protocol). Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, 4, CD000501. [Protocol/Methodology].

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Darlow, B. A., Inder, T. E., Sluis, K. B., Buss, H., Graham, P. J., Mogridge, N., & Winterbourn, C. C. (1998). New Zealand Neonatal Study Group. Randomised controlled trial of selenium supplementation in New Zealand infants. Pediatric Research. 43, (pp. 258A). [Abstract]

1997

Journal - Research Article

Inder, T. E., Clemett, R. S., Austin, N. C., Graham, P. J., & Darlow, B. A. (1997). High iron status in very low birth weight infants is associated with an increased risk of retinopathy of prematurity. Journal of Pediatrics, 131(4), 541-544.

Epton, M. J., Martin, I. R., Graham, P. J., Healy, P. E., Smith, H., Rengasamy, B., … Town, G. I. (1997). Climate and aeroallergen levels in asthma: a 12 month prospective study. Thorax, 52(6), 528-534.

1996

Journal - Research Article

Hickling, K. G., Town, G. I., Epton, M., Neill, A., Tie, A., Whitehead, M., Graham, P., … Darlow, B. A., & Laubscher, K. (1996). Pressure limited ventilation with permisive hypercapnia and minimum PEEP in saline lavaged rabbits allows progressive improvement in oxygenation, but does not avoid ventilator induced lung injury. Intensive Care Medicine, 22(12), 1445-1452.

Inder, T. E., Darlow, B. A., Sluis, K. B. M., Winterbourn, C. C., Graham, P. J. M., Sanderson, K. J., & Taylor, B. J. (1996). The correction of elevated levels of an index of lipid peroxidation (MDA-TBA) with adverse outcome in the very low birthweight infant. Acta Paediatrica, 85, 1116-1122.

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Full paper

Graham, P. J. (1996). Comparing maximum likelihood estimates obtained from different models. In L. Kavalieris, F. C. Lam, L. A. Roberts, J. A. L. Shanks Kavalieris & J. A. Shanks (Eds.), Proceedings of the A.C. Aitken Centenary Conference. (Otago Conference Series, no.5). (pp. 133-141). Dunedin: University of Otago Press. [Full Paper]

1995

Journal - Research Article

Town, G. I., Hodges, I. D., Wilkie, A. T., Toop, L. J., Graham, P., & Drennan, C. J. (1995). A community-wide promotion of asthma self-management in New Zealand. Patient Education & Counseling, 26, 219-224. doi: 10.1016/0738-3991(94)00743-6

Darlow, B. A., Inder, T. E., Graham, P. J., Sluis, K. B., Malpas, T. J., Taylor, B. J., & Winterbourn, C. C. (1995). The relationship of selenium status to respiratory outcome in the very low birth weight infant: relationship to maternal status, infant nutrition and respiratory outcome. Pediatrics, 96, 314-319.