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Professor Blair Fitzharris has undertaken research on climate change in New Zealand, Canada, Norway, England, Switzerland and Australia and has written over 150 research publications on the subjects of climate, snow and glaciers. He is also a Consultant with 35 years experience on climate matters related to large scale resource development, mining, land use, energy (including hydro and wind power) and climate change. Blair has acted as a Consultant for many of New Zealand's largest corporations.

Professor Fitzharris has played a senior role with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) since 1992. IPCC and Al Gore were jointly awarded the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007 "for their efforts to build up and disseminate greater knowledge about man-made climate change and to lay the foundations for the measures that are needed to counteract such change".

Blair has been a Convening Lead Author for four major Assessment Reports of IPCC. This work investigates climate change, its possible impact and how vulnerable we may be. His role with IPCC is summarized below:

  • 1993-1996 Convening Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Second Assessment Report, Working Group II, (Ch 7, The Cryosphere)
  • 1996-1998 Convening Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Regional Assessment Report, Working Group II (Chapter 3, Polar Regions)
  • 1998-2001 Convening Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Third Assessment Report, Working Group II (Chapter 16, Polar Regions)
  • 2003-2007 Convening Lead Author, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Fourth Assessment Report, Working Group II (Chapter 11, Australia & New Zealand)

Currently, Professor Fitzharris is a Review Editor for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, Working Group II (Chapter 25, Australasia). He was also involved with the UNEP Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, where he acted as Review Editor for the Chapter on "Mountains". He is a past member of Antarctica New Zealand's Research Committee.

Professor Fitzharris is a past member of the Royal Society of NZ Standing Committee on Climate Change, a former President of the Meteorological Society of NZ and former Chair of the NZ Mountain Safety Council. In 1998 he was elected a Life Member of the Otago University Rugby Football Club.

Research Interests

Future global warming is expected to have large impacts. The ultimate objective of Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) is stabilising greenhouse gas emissions “at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic (human induced) interference with the climate system”. It states that “such a level should be achieved within a time-frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner'”. Professor Fitzharris investigates three aspects of these objectives:

1. Impacts of climate change on glaciers and snow: these are very sensitive to climate change because of the critical threshold temperature of freezing/melting and because of changes in type and amount of precipitation. The research relates past behaviour of snow and ice to climatic variability and atmospheric circulation patterns. It creates computer simulation models of past snow and ice behaviour. These models are then used to examine the sensitivity of snow and ice under various scenarios of future climate change. Changes in snow and ice affect runoff from mountain areas and the elevation of the snow line and these parameters are also modeled. Such impacts may contribute to dangerous climate change through increasing vulnerability to water shortages, increased hazards and rising sea levels. They also will have socio-economic effects related to Alpine tourism and recreation.

2. Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of climate change in Australia and New Zealand: this research is part of my work as a Convening Lead Author for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Evidence for climate change (warming, drying, and more storms) has become clearer, and modeling indicates these trends are likely to continue. While potential benefits are likely to accrue for southern and western New Zealand, there will be dramatic shifts in the geographic distribution of agriculture, forestry and bio-security threats. The structure, function and species composition of many natural ecosystems are certain to alter. Research indicates that water security problems will be exacerbated. Growing coastal settlements are likely to be highly vulnerable to more frequent storm surges and rising sea levels.

3. Vulnerability of developed countries to climate change: It has long been accepted that developing countries are likely to be highly vulnerable to the climate change. But, could climate change also become dangerous for developed countries with western style economies? The example of the Australia and New Zealand region is used to examine this question. Both countries have high adaptive capacity to alleviate many of the impacts of climate change, but sustainable development is likely to be threatened in a number of identifiable hotspot regions.

Professor Fitzharris remains active in a small research group that investigates end of summer snowlines for 50 glaciers of the Southern Alps of New Zealand. This data are used to estimate changes in mass balance of glaciers and changes in total ice volume of the Southern Alps back to 1930. Also examined are climate and atmospheric circulation drivers of these changes.

Blair Fitzharris Staff photo

CONTACT DETAILS
E: blair.fitzharris @otago.ac.nz

Publications

Salinger, M. J., Trenberth, K. E., Diamond, H. J., Behrens, E., Fitzharris, B. B., Herold, N., Smith, R. O., … Trought, M. C. T. (2024). Climate extremes in the New Zealand region: Mechanisms, impacts and attribution. International Journal of Climatology. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1002/joc.8667 Journal - Research Article

Salinger, J., & Fitzharris, B. (2021). The impacts of the 2017/18 and 2018/19 heatwaves on Southern Alps glaciers. Proceedings of the 18th Snow & Ice Research Group (SIRG) Annual Workshop: Understanding Mountain Climate II. (pp. 12). Retrieved from https://www.sirg.org.nz Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Salinger, M. J., Fitzharris, B. B., & Chinn, T. (2021). Extending end-of-summer-snowlines for the Southern Alps Glaciers of New Zealand back to 1949. International Journal of Climatology, 41, 6122-6132. doi: 10.1002/joc.7177 Journal - Research Article

Salinger, J., Fitzharris, B., & Chinn, T. (2020). Climate forcing of glacier volume change in the Alps of New Zealand. Proceedings of the New Zealand Snow & Ice Research Group (SIRG) Annual Meeting. (pp. 26). Retrieved from https://sirg.org.nz Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Salinger, M. J., Diamond, H. J., Behrens, E., Fernandez, D., Fitzharris, B. B., Herold, N., … Smith, R. O., … Trought, M. C. T. (2020). Unparalleled coupled ocean-atmosphere summer heatwaves in the New Zealand region: Drivers, mechanisms and impacts. Climatic Change, 162(2), 485-506. doi: 10.1007/s10584-020-02730-5 Journal - Research Article

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