Mark Stirling staff page, Academic staff, Department of Geology

Chair of Earthquake Science

BSc, MSc (University of Otago), PhD (University of Nevada Reno)

Multidisciplinary seismic hazard modelling
Seismotectonics
Earthquake statistics
Tectonic geomorphology
Paleoseismology of low slip rate faults

Email mark.stirling@otago.ac.nz
Google Scholar: Mark Stirling
ORCID: orcid.org/0000-0002-2562-4675

Research interests

Mark is a seismologist with a multidisciplinary background in geology and seismology. He specialises in the integration of geological, seismological and geodetic datasets for seismotectonic and seismic hazard modelling.

He moved to his present position at Otago in February 2016, and prior to that was a Principal Scientist at GNS Science. He has led the development of the last three versions of the national seismic hazard model (NSHM) for New Zealand (1998, 2002 and 2012), which is the hazard basis for the New Zealand Loadings Standard. He has worked extensively in industry-funded projects in the building construction, hydroelectric power, nuclear, and development aid sectors, and is widely recognised for his pioneering collaborative work with US colleagues on the use of historical and geological observations to test and evaluate seismic hazard models.

He currently serves on the core team of the New Zealand NSHM , and is working on testing and evaluation of the US NSHM as well.

He has been the recipient of two Otto Glogau Awards from the New Zealand Society of Earthquake Engineering for his publications, was Society President for the period 2004–2006, and was made a Fellow of the Society in 2007. He is currently Deputy Chief Editor for the Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, and has served on oversight committees for the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Foundation over the period 2009–12.

He has authored or co-authored 100 refereed journal papers, book chapters, and books, and a further 36 refereed conference proceedings papers.

Otago earthquake science group

Mark is currently working on using fragile geologic features to test and evaluate the New Zealand and US national seismic hazard models, and has an ongoing Core Team role in the National Seismic Hazard Model.

He also advises the University of Otago Property Services on seismic issues surrounding the University's building stock, and has installed an accelerograph network around the Dunedin campus as part of this role.

He is also undertaking paleoseismic studies in Otago, Nevada, and Australia, and in the next few years will have led studies of all the major active faults of Otago (except a GNS Science-led study of the Titri Fault). In addition to the above he also supervises the research being conducted by his current Postdoctoral Fellow and students.

More about earthquake science research at Otago

Current students

Govinda Niroula (PhD) – Earthquake rupture simulation science
Alexandra Travers (PhD) – Rupture displacement hazard of reverse faults
Lucy O’Neill (MSc) – Deformation modelling of Otago using Pylith software
Ashleigh Vause (MSc) – Fluvioglacial terrace chronology and late Quaternary activity of the Pisa Fault

Past students

Anna Kowal (PhD, 2022) – Shear wave velocity model and ground motion simulations for Dunedin and Mosgiel
Jonathan Griffin (PhD, 2021) – Seismic source modelling of low seismicity regions: Otago case study
Aidan Meyer (Bsc(Hons, 2021)) – Paleoseismology of the Long Valley Fault, Central Otago
Ella van den Berg (MSc, 2020) – Paleoseismology of the Cardrona Fault, Central Otago, New Zealand
Ross Nicolls (MSc, 2020) – East Otago range front geomorphology; constraints on location and timing of fault activity
Alex Zhou (PGDipSci, 2020) – What lies beneath the University Campus
Catherine Sangster (MSc, 2019) – Strong motion seismology ground motion simulations in Dunedin CBD
Elliot Bowie (MSc, 2017) – Validations of ground motion simulations using precarious rocks
Andy Holt (MSc, 2017) – Analysis of and mapping of strata and overburden using seismology and other GIS techniques.
Briar Taylor-Silva (MSc, 2017) – Akatore Fault trenching
Asrid Vetrhus COP (MSc) – Earthquake-generated landslides in the Southern Alps

Publications

Williams, J. N., Stirling, M. W., Langridge, R., Niroula, G., Vause, A., Stewart, J., … Wang, N. (2024). Along-strike extent of earthquakes on multi-segment reverse faults: Insights from the Nevis-Cardrona Fault, Aotearoa New Zealand. Seismica, 3(2). doi: 10.26443/seismica.v3i2.1310 Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Fitzgerald, M., Shaw, B., & Ross, C. (2024). New magnitude–area scaling relations for the New Zealand National Seismic Hazard Model 2022. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 114(1), 137-149. doi: 10.1785/0120230114 Journal - Research Article

Wang, T., Griffin, J. D., Brenna, M., Fletcher, D., Zeng, J., Stirling, M., Dillingham, P. W., & Kang, J. (2024). Earthquake forecasting from paleoseismic records. Nature Communications, 15, 1944. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-46258-z Journal - Research Article

van den Berg, E. J., Williams, J. N., Stirling, M. W., Barrell, D. J. A., Griffin, J. D., Litchfield, N. J., & Wang, N. (2024). Late Quaternary activity of the NW Cardrona Fault, Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2023.2297962 Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., & Pratt, T. L. (2023). Analyses of fragile geologic features in central New England, U.S.A. Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting: Wide. Open. Science. S04-05. Retrieved from https://www.agu.org Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

2024

Journal - Research Article

2023

Journal - Research Article

Seeback, H., Van Dissen, R., Litchfield, N., Barnes, P. M., Nicol, A., Langridge, R., … Stirling, M., … Lee, J. (2023). The New Zealand Community Fault Model, version 1.0: An improved geological foundation for seismic hazard modelling. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics. Advance online publication. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2023.2181362

Gerstenberger, M. C., Rhoades, D. A., Litchfield, N., Abbott, E., Goded, T., Christophersen, A., … Stirling, M. W., … Wallace, L. (2023). A time-dependent seismic hazard model following the Kaikōura M7.8 earthquake. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 66(2), 192-216. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2022.2158881

Barrell, D. J. A., Stirling, M. W., Williams, J. N., Sauer, K. M., & van den Berg, E. J. (2023). Hundalee Fault, North Canterbury, New Zealand: Late Quaternary activity and regional tectonics. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 66(2), 293-316. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2022.2153877

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Pratt, T. L., McPhillips, D., Stirling, M. W., Figueiredo, P. M., & Lindberg, N. (2023). Using seismometers to constrain responses of precariously balanced rocks to input perturbations. Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting: Wide. Open. Science. S43I-0439. Retrieved from https://www.agu.org

Niroula, G. P., Stirling, M. W., Williams, J., & Gerstenberger, M. (2023). Testing and evaluation of earthquake rupture simulation for New Zealand. Proceedings of the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Fall Meeting: Wide. Open. Science. S33D-0442. Retrieved from https://www.agu.org

Williams, J., Stirling, M. W., Barrell, D. J. A., Eberhart-Phillips, D., & Bourguignon, S. (2023). Active faulting and seismicity in low strain rate regions: New perspectives from the southern South Island. In G. E. Frontin-Rollett & S. D. Nodder (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 164A, (pp. 271). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Williams, J., Stirling, M., Barrell, D., Niroula, G., & Wavelet, E. (2023). A revised record of late Quaternary activity on the Settlement Fault, Otago, New Zealand. In G. E. Frontin-Rollett & S. D. Nodder (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 164A, (pp. 270). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Vause, A., Stirling, M., Williams, J., Wilcken, K., & Griffin, J. (2023). Faulted terraces and recurrence behaviour of the Pisa Fault. In G. E. Frontin-Rollett & S. D. Nodder (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 164A, (pp. 255). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Niroula, G. P., Stirling, M. W., Williams, J., & Gerstenberger, M. (2023). Testing and evaluation of earthquake rupture simulation for New Zealand. In G. E. Frontin-Rollett & S. D. Nodder (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 164A, (pp. 175). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Martin, H. E., Eccles, J. D., Muirhead, J. D., & Stirling, M. W. (2023). Characterization of post-Pliocene dynamics of the Mangatangi Fault, South Auckland. In G. E. Frontin-Rollett & S. D. Nodder (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 164A, (pp. 153). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Chanony, S., Fry, B., Stirling, M., & Gorman, A. (2023). Radiated energy estimations for New Zealand earthquakes. In G. E. Frontin-Rollett & S. D. Nodder (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 164A, (pp. 43). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

2022

Journal - Research Article

Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., Wilcken, K. M., & Barrell, D. J. A. (2022). Late Quaternary slip rates for the Hyde and Dunstan Faults, Southern New Zealand: Implications for strain migration in a slowly deforming continental plate margin. Tectonics, 41(9), e2022TC007250. doi: 10.1029/2022TC007250

Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., Barrell, D. J. A., van den Berg, E. J., Todd, E. K., Nicolls, R., & Wang, N. (2022). Paleoseismology of the Hyde Fault, Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 65(4), 613-637. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2021.1995007

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Williams, J., Stirling, M., Niroula, G., Vause, A., Stewart, J., Nicol, A., & Langridge, R. (2022). Along-strike extent of ruptures on geometrically complex reverse faults: Insights from paleoseismic investigations and physics-based earthquake simulations of the Nevis-Cardrona Fault system. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 161A, (pp. 307). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Stirling, M., Williams, J., & Griffin, J. (2022). Earthquake source characterisation in southern New Zealand: An update. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 161A, (pp. 259). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Fry, B., Nicol, A., Kaiser, A., Liao, M., Power, W., Horspool, N., … Stirling, M., … and the RCET and RNC EQ/Tsu teams. (2022). Physics to resilience: Next generation earthquake and tsunami response. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 161A, (pp. 88). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Eberhart-Phillips, D., & Stirling, M. W. (2022). The influence of basement terranes on tectonic deformation: Joint earthquake travel-time and ambient noise tomography of the southern. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 161A, (pp. 80). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

2021

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Abbott, E. R., Rood, D. H., McVerry, G. H., Abrahamson, N. A., Barrell, D. J. A., … Zondervan, A. (2021). First use of fragile geologic features to set the design motions for a major engineered structure. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 11(5), 2673-2695. doi: 10.1785/0120210026

Stirling, M. W., Oskin, M. E., Arrowsmith, J. R., Rood, A. H., Goulet, C. A., Ludwig, L. G., … Wittich, C. E. (2021). Evaluation of seismic hazard models with fragile geologic features. Seismological Research Letters, 92(1), 314-324. doi: 10.1785/0220200197

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Nicol, A., Howell, A., Van Dissen, R., Gerstenberger, M., Chamberain, C., Shaw, B., … Stirling, M. (2021). What do large earthquakes look like in New Zealand how should they be incorporated into our national seismic hazard model? In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 158, (pp. 334). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Gerstenberger, M., Bradley, B., Kaiser, A., Nicol, A., Stirling, M., Thingbaijam, K., … and the NSHM Team. (2021). An update on the 2022 NSHM revision project. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 158, (pp. 332). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Meyer, F., Stirling, M., Griffin, J., & Wang, N. (2021). A paleoseismic investigation of the Long Valley Fault, central Otago. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 158, (pp. 181). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., Wilcken, K., Barrell, D. J. A., & Simon, K. (2021). Slip rates for the Hyde and Dunstan Faults, southern New Zealand, revealed by cosmogenic radionuclide dating. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 158, (pp. 96). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Fry, B., Nicol, A., Kaiser, A., Gusman, A., Power, W., McCurrach, S. J., … Stirling, M., … Smith, R. (2021). Physics to resilience: Next generation earthquake and tsunami response. In A. V. Zernack & J. Palmer (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 158, (pp. 83). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

2020

Journal - Research Article

Griffin, J. D., Stirling, M. W., & Wang, T. (2020). Periodicity and clustering in the long-term earthquake record. Geophysical Research Letters, 47, e2020GL089272. doi: 10.1029/2020GL089272

Morell, K. D., Styron, R., Stirling, M., Griffin, J., Archuleta, R., & Onur, T. (2020). Seismic hazard analyses from geologic and geomorphic data: Current and future challenges [Commissioned manuscript]. Tectonics, 39, e2018TC005365. doi: 10.1029/2018TC005365

Rood, A. H., Rood, D. H., Stirling, M. W., Madugo, C. M., Abrahamson, N. A., Wilcken, K. M., … Stafford, P. J. (2020). Earthquake hazard uncertainties improved using precariously balanced rocks. AGU Advances, 1(4), e2020AV000182. doi: 10.1029/2020av000182

Todd, E. K., Stirling, M. W., Fry, B., Salichon, J., & Villamor, P. (2020). Characterising microseismicity in a low seismicity region: Applications of short-term broadband seismic arrays in Dunedin, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 63(3), 331-341. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2019.1707238

Taylor-Silva, B. I., Stirling, M. W., Litchfield, N. J., Griffin, J. D., van den Berg, E. J., & Wang, N. (2020). Paleoseismology of the Akatore Fault, Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 63(2), 151-167. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2019.1645706

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Griffin, J., Stirling, M., & Wang, T. (2020). Do large earthquakes recur regularly, randomly or clustered together in New Zealand? In K. N. Bassett, A. R. L. Nichols & C. H. Fenton (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 157A, (pp. 119). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Kowal, A., Stirling, M., Wotherspoon, L., & Jeong, S. (2020). Ground motion simulations for Dunedin-Mosgiel area. In K. N. Bassett, A. R. L. Nichols & C. H. Fenton (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 157A, (pp. 160). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

Stirling, M. (2020). Clyde Dam, Otago: 40 years of hazard science. In K. N. Bassett, A. R. L. Nichols & C. H. Fenton (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 157A, (pp. 275). Wellington, New Zealand: Geoscience Society of New Zealand. [Abstract]

2019

Journal - Research Article

Goded, T., Gerstenberger, M., Stirling, M., Cousins, J., & Canessa, S. (2019). High-intensity assignments for the 22 February 2011 M_w 6.2 Christchurch, Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake: A contribution toward understanding the severe damage caused by this event. Seismological Research Letters, 90(4), 1468-1482. doi: 10.1785/0220180385

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Kowal, A., Stirling, M., Gorman, A., & Wotherspoon, L. (2019). Strong ground motions simulations for Dunedin: Recent progress. Proceedings of the 4th Te Hiranga Rū QuakeCoRE Annual Meeting. (pp. 23). Retrieved from http://www.quakecore.nz

Conference Contribution - Verbal presentation and other Conference outputs

Stirling, M. (2019, May). Seismic hazard modelling in New Zealand: Addressing the complexities. Verbal presentation at the Survey & Spatial New Zealand (S+SNZ) Annual Conference: Shaping Tomorrow's Communities, Auckland, New Zealand.

2018

Journal - Research Article

Goded, T., Lewis, A., & Stirling, M. (2018). Seismic vulnerability scenarios of unreinforced masonry churches in New Zealand. Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering, 16(9), 3957-3999. doi: 10.1007/s10518-018-0351-7

Williams, J., Barrell, D. J. A., Stirling, M. W., Sauer, K. M., Duke, G. C., & Hao, K. X. (2018). Surface rupture of the Hundalee Fault during the 2016 M_w 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B), 1540-1555. doi: 10.1785/0120170291

Litchfield, N. J., Villamor, P., Van Dissen, R. J., Nicol, A., Barnes, P. M., Barrell, D. J. A., … Stirling, M. W., … Sauer, K., … Toy, V., Williams, J., … Zinke, R. (2018). Surface rupture of multiple crustal faults in the 2016 M_w 7.8 Kaikōura, New Zealand, earthquake. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B), 1496-1520. doi: 10.1785/0120170300

Stirling, M. W., & Anderson, J. G. (2018). Magnitude as a function of rupture length and slip rate for recent large New Zealand earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(3B), 1623-1629. doi: 10.1785/0120170284

Bebbington, M. S., Stirling, M. W., Cronin, S., Wang, T., & Jolly, G. (2018). National-level long-term eruption forecasts by expert elicitation. Bulletin of Volcanology, 80, 56. doi: 10.1007/s00445-018-1230-4

Stirling, M., & Gerstenberger, M. (2018). Applicability of the Gutenberg-Richter relation for major active faults in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 108(2), 718-728. doi: 10.1785/0120160257

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Villamor, P., Barrell, D., Gorman, A., Davy, B., Fry, B., Hreinsdottir, S., … Stirling, M., … Holt, A., Todd, E., Denys, P., Pearson, C., Sangster, C., … Ohneiser, C., Lepine, P., & Caratori-Tontini, F. (2018). Are there hidden active faults under Dunedin City? In M. Sagar & J. Prebble (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 151A, (pp. 281). Wellington, New Zealand: GSNZ. [Abstract]

Van Dissen, R., Stahl, T., King, A., Pettinga, J., Fenton, C., Little, T., … Stirling, M., … Villamor, P. (2018). Impacts of surface fault rupture on residential structures during the 2016 M_W 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake, New Zealand. In M. Sagar & J. Prebble (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 151A, (pp. 278). Wellington, New Zealand: GSNZ. [Abstract]

Todd, E., Stirling, M., Fry, B., & Villamor, P. (2018). Characterising seismicity in a low-seismicity region around Dunedin, New Zealand. In M. Sagar & J. Prebble (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 151A, (pp. 268). Wellington, New Zealand: GSNZ. [Abstract]

Nicol, A., Khajavi, N., Kearse, J., Van Dissen, R., Stirling, M., & Gerstenberger, M. (2018). How important are multi-fault ruptures in New Zealand earthquakes? In M. Sagar & J. Prebble (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 151A, (pp. 199). Wellington, New Zealand: GSNZ. [Abstract]

Langridge, R., Van Dissen, R., Nicol, A., Pettinga, J., Stirling, M., Barrell, D., … Williams, J., … Brough, T. (2018). Paleoseismicity of 2016 M_W 7.8 Kaikōura Earthquake faults: Was this event the norm or one "out of the park"? In M. Sagar & J. Prebble (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 151A, (pp. 160). Wellington, New Zealand: GSNZ. [Abstract]

Barrell, D., Stirling, M., Williams, J., Sauer, K., & van den Berg, E. (2018). Kaikōura Earthquake: Hundalee Fault paleoseismology. In M. Sagar & J. Prebble (Eds.), Geoscience Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 151A, (pp. 19). Wellington, New Zealand: GSNZ. [Abstract]

Conference Contribution - Poster Presentation (not in published proceedings)

Sangster, C., Gorman, A., Stirling, M., & Wotherspoon, L. (2018, September). Getting ready to rock Dunedin: 3D velocity model for Dunedin ground motion simulations. Poster session presented at the 3rd QuakeCoRE Annual Meeting, Taupō, New Zealand.

Kowal, A., Stirling, M., Sangster, C., & Gorman, A. (2018, September). Strong ground motions simulations for Dunedin: First step using the SCEC Broadband Simulation Platform. Poster session presented at the 3rd QuakeCoRE Annual Meeting, Taupō, New Zealand.

Working Paper; Discussion Paper; Technical Report

Villamor, P., Barrell, D. J. A., Gorman, A., Davy, B. W., Hreinsdottir, S., Hamling, I. J., Stirling, M. W., … Holt, A., Todd, E., Denys, P., Pearson, C., Sangster, C., … Ohneiser, C., Lepine, P., & Caratori-Tontini, F. (2018). Unknown faults under cities (GNS Science miscellaneous series 124). Lower Hutt, New Zealand: GNS Science. 71p. doi: 10.21420/G2PW7X

2017

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Bebbington, M., Brenna, M., Cronin, S., Christophersen, A., Deligne, N., … Wang, T., White, J. D. L., … Wilson, T. (2017). Conceptual development of a National Volcanic Hazard Model for New Zealand. Frontiers in Earth Science, 5, 51. doi: 10.3389/feart.2017.00051

Stirling, M. W., Litchfield, N. J., Villamor, P., Van Dissen, R. J., Nicol, A., Pettinga, J., … Duke, G., … Sauer, K., … Toy, V., … Williams, J., … Zinke, R. (2017). The M_W7.8 2016 Kaikōura earthquake: Surface fault rupture and seismic hazard context. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 50(2), 73-84.

Hamling, I. J., Hreinsdóttir, S., Clark, K., Elliott, J., Liang, C., Fielding, E., … Denys, P., … Pearson, C., … Stirling, M. (2017). Complex multifault rupture during the 2016 M_w 7.8 Kaikōura earthquake, New Zealand. Science, 356(6334), eaam7194. doi: 10.1126/science.aam7194

Journal - Research Other

Stirling, M. W., & Zuniga, F. R. (2017). Shape of the magnitude–frequency distribution for the Canterbury Earthquake Sequence from integration of seismological and geological data [Short note]. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 107(1), 495-500. doi: 10.1785/0120160246

Other Research Output

Stirling, M. (2017, March). Earthquakes, Quaternary faults, and seismic hazard in New Zealand and beyond. University of Otago, Dunedin, New Zealand. [Inaugural Professorial Lecture].

2016

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Bebbington, M., Stirling, M., Cronin, S., Wang, T., & Jolly, G. (2016). Expert elicitation for a national-level volcano hazard model. Geophysical Research Abstracts, 18, EGU2016-3591. [Abstract]

2015

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., & Della Pasqua, F. (2015). Erosion rates for pinnacles formed in soft sediments and implications for constraining seismic-hazard models. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 105(2A), 590-598. doi: 10.1785/0120140231

Christopherson, A., Litchfield, N., Berryman, K., Thomas, R., Basili, R., Wallace, L., … Stirling, M. W., … Yeats, R. (2015). Development of the Global Earthquake Model’s neotectonic fault database. Natural Hazards, 79(1), 111-135. doi: 10.1007/s11069-015-1831-6

2014

Journal - Research Article

Mountjoy, J. J., Micallef, A., Stevens, C. L., & Stirling, M. W. (2014). Holocene sedimentary activity in a non-terrestrially coupled submarine canyon: Cook Strait Canyon system, New Zealand. Deep Sea Research Part II, 104, 120-133. doi: 10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.09.001

Gerstenberger, M., McVerry, G., Rhoades, D., & Stirling, M. (2014). Seismic hazard modeling for the recovery of Christchurch. Earthquake Spectra, 30(1), 17-29. doi: 10.1193/021913EQS037M

Journal - Research Other

Langridge, R., Howarth, J., Cochran, U., Stirling, M., Villamor, P., Sutherland, R., … Norris, R. (2014). Lidar reveals uniform Alpine fault offsets and bimodal plate boundary rupture behavior, New Zealand [Forum Comment]. Geology, 42(10), e351. doi: 10.1130/G35935C.1

2013

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Goded, T., Berryman, K., & Litchfield, N. (2013). Selection of earthquake scaling relationships for seismic-hazard analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 103(6), 2993-3011. doi: 10.1785/0120130052

2012

Journal - Research Article

Cox, S. C., Stirling, M. W., Herman, F., Gerstenberger, M., & Ristau, J. (2012). Potentially active faults in the rapidly eroding landscape adjacent to the Alpine Fault, central Southern Alps, New Zealand. Tectonics, 31(2), TC2011. doi: 10.1029/2011TC003038

Bradley, B. A., Stirling, M. W., McVerry, G. H., & Gerstenberger, M. (2012). Consideration and propagation of epistemic uncertainties in New Zealand probabilistic seismic-hazard analysis. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4), 1554-1568. doi: 10.1785/0120110257

Villamor, P., Capote, R., Stirling, M. W., Tsige, M., Berryman, K. R., Martinez-Díaz, J. J., & Martin-González, F. (2012). Contribution of active faults in the intraplate area of Iberia to seismic hazard: The Alentejo-Plasencia Fault. Journal of Iberian Geology, 38(1), 85-111. doi: 10.5209/rev_JIGE.2012.v38.n1.39207

Stirling, M., McVerry, G., Gerstenberger, M., Litchfield, N., Van Dissen, R., Berryman, K., … Jacobs, K. (2012). National seismic hazard model for New Zealand: 2010 update. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4), 1514-1542. doi: 10.1785/0120110170

Rhoades, D., & Stirling, M. W. (2012). An earthquake likelihood model based on proximity to mapped faults and cataloged earthquakes. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 102(4), 1593-1599. doi: 10.1785/0120110326

Journal - Research Other

Stirling, M. W. (2012). Earthquake hazard maps and objective testing: The hazard mapper's point of view. Seismological Research Letters, 83(2), 231-232. doi: 10.1785/gssrl.83.2.231

2011

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M., Litchfield, N., Gerstenberger, M., Clark, D., Bradley, B., Beavan, J., … Buxton, R. (2011). Preliminary probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of the CO2CRC Otway project site, Victoria, Australia. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 101(6), 2726-2736. doi: 10.1785/0120110049

2010

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Ledgerwood, J., Liu, T., & Apted, M. (2010). Age of unstable bedrock landforms southwest of Yucca Mountain, Nevada, and implications for past ground motions. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(1), 74-86. doi: 10.1785/0120080359

Stirling, M., & Gerstenberger, M. (2010). Ground motion-based testing of seismic hazard models in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 100(4), 1407-1414. doi: 10.1785/0120090336

Slejko, D., Caporali, A., Stirling, M., & Barba, S. (2010). Occurrence probability of moderate to large earthquakes in Italy based on new geophysical methods. Journal of Seismology, 14(1), 27-51. doi: 10.1007/s10950-009-9175-x

2009

Chapter in Book - Research

Stirling, M., Berryman, K., Wallace, L. M., Litchfield, N. J., Beavan, J., & Smith, W. D. (2009). Multi-disciplinary probabilistic tectonic hazard analysis. In C. B. Connor, N. A. Chapman & J. Connor (Eds.), Volcanic and tectonic hazard assessment for nuclear facilities. (pp. 257-275). UK: Cambridge University Press. doi: 10.1017/CBO9780511635380.011

Journal - Research Article

Gerstenberger, M., Nicol, A., Stenhouse, M., Berryman, K., Stirling, M., Webb, T., & Smith, W. (2009). Modularised logic tree risk assessment method for carbon capture and storage projects. Energy Procedia, 1, 2495-2502. doi: 10.1016/j.egypro.2009.02.012

2008

Journal - Research Article

Tormann, T., Savage, M. K., Smith, E. G. C., Stirling, M. W., & Wiemer, S. (2008). Time-, distance-, and magnitude-dependent foreshock probability model for New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 98(5), 2149-2160. doi: 10.1785/0120060217

Stirling, M., Gerstenberger, M., Litchfield, N., McVerry, G., Smith, W., Pettinga, J., & Barnes, P. (2008). Seismic hazard of the Canterbury Region, New Zealand: New earthquake source model and methodology. Bulletin of the New Zealand Society for Earthquake Engineering, 41(2), 51-67.

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Full paper

Stirling, M. (2008). Simplified probabilistic seismic hazard model for Yucca mountain. Proceedings of the 12th International High-Level Radioactive Waste Management Conference. (pp. 521-523). La Grange Park, IL: American Nuclear Society. [Full Paper]

2007

Chapter in Book - Research

Eberhart-Phillips, D., Sutherland, R., Eberhart-Phillips, D., Harris, R. A., Stern, T., Beavan, J., … Cox, S., Norris, R. J., … Cooper, A. F., … Stirling, M. (2007). Do great earthquakes occur on the Alpine fault in central South Island, New Zealand. In D. Okaya, T. Stern & F. Davey (Eds.), A continental plate boundary: Tectonics at South Island, New Zealand. (pp. 235-251). Washington, DC: American Geophysical Union. doi: 10.1029/175GM12

Journal - Research Article

Power, W., Downes, G., & Stirling, M. (2007). Estimation of tsunami hazard in New Zealand due to South American earthquakes. Pure & Applied Geophysics, 164(2), 547-564. doi: 10.1007/s00024-006-0166-3

Nodder, S. D., Lamarche, G., Proust, J.-N., & Stirling, M. (2007). Characterizing earthquake recurrence parameters for offshore faults in the low-strain, compressional Kapiti-Manawatu Fault System, New Zealand. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, 112, B12102. doi: 10.1029/2007JB005019

2006

Journal - Research Article

Zachariasen, J., Berryman, K., Langridge, R., Prentice, C., Rymer, M., Stirling, M., & Villamor, P. (2006). Timing of late Holocene surface rupture of the Wairau Fault, Marlborough, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 49(1), 159-174. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2006.9515156

Stirling, M. W., & Anooshehpoor, R. (2006). Constraints on probabilistic seismic-hazard models from unstable landform features in New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(2), 404-414. doi: 10.1785/0120050034

Stirling, M., & Petersen, M. (2006). Comparison of the historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic-hazard models for New Zealand and the continental United States. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 96(6), 1978-1994. doi: 10.1785/0120050176

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Full paper

Stirling, M., Berryman, K., Wallace, L., Litchfield, N., Apted, M., & Cloos, M. (2006). Neotectonic considerations for nuclear waste repository site selection in Japan. Proceedings of the 11th International High Level Radioactive Waste Management (IHLRWM) Conference. (pp. 151-153). La Grange Park, IL: American Nuclear Society. [Full Paper]

Conference Contribution - Published proceedings: Abstract

Sutherland, R., Eberhart-Phillips, D., Harris, R. A., Stern, T., Beavan, J., Ellis, S., … Norris, R. J., … Cooper, A. F., … Stirling, M. (2006). Do great earthquakes occur on the Alpine Fault in central South Island, New Zealand? In B. Stewart, C. Wallace, J. Lecointre & M. Reyners (Eds.), Geological Society of New Zealand Miscellaneous Publication. 122A, (pp. 101). Wellington, New Zealand: GSNZ. [Abstract]

2005

Journal - Research Article

Pace, B., Stirling, M. W., Litchfield, N. J., & Rieser, U. (2005). New active fault data and seismic hazard estimates for west Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 48(1), 75-83. doi: 10.1080/00288306.2005.9515099

Alloway, B., McComb, P., Neall, V., Vucetich, C., Gibb, J., Sherburn, S., & Stirling, M. (2005). Stratigraphy, age, and correlation of voluminous debris-avalanche events from an ancestral Egmont Volcano: Implications for coastal plain construction and regional hazard assessment. Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand, 35, 229-267. doi: 10.1080/03014223.2005.9517782

2002

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., McVerry, G. H., & Berryman, K. R. (2002). A new seismic hazard model for New Zealand. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(5), 1878-1903. doi: 10.1785/0120010156

Stirling, M., Anoshehpoor, A., Brune, J. N., Biasi, G. P., & Wesnousky, S. G. (2002). Assessment of the site conditions of precariously balanced rocks in the Mojave Desert, southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(6), 2139-2144. doi: 10.1785/0120010221

Stirling, M., Rhoades, D., & Berryman, K. (2002). Comparison of earthquake scaling relations derived from data of the instrumental and preinstrumental era. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 92(2), 812-830. doi: 10.1785/0120000221

1998

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Wesnousky, S. G., & Berryman, K. R. (1998). Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis of New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 41(4), 355-375. doi: 10.1080/00288306.1998.9514816

Stirling, M. W., & Wesnousky, S. G. (1998). Comparison of recent probabilistic seismic hazard maps for southern California. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 88(3), 855-861.

1996

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W., Wesnousky, S. G., & Shimazaki, K. (1996). Fault trace complexity, cumulative slip, and the shape of the magnitude-frequency distribution for strike-slip faults: A global survey. Geophysical Journal International, 124(3), 833-868. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.1996.tb05641.x

Hirabayashi, C. K., Rockwell, T. K., Wesnousky, S. G., Stirling, M. W., & Suarez-Vidal, F. (1996). A neotectonic study of the San Miguel-Vallecitos fault, Baja California, Mexico. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86(6), 1770-1783.

Anderson, J. G., Wesnousky, S. G., & Stirling, M. W. (1996). Earthquake size as a function of fault slip rate. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 86(3), 683-690.

1992

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W. (1992). Late Holocene beach ridges displaced by the Wellington Fault in the Lower Hutt area, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 35, 447-453. doi: 10.1080/00288306.1992.9514539

1991

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W. (1991). Peneplain modification in an alpine environment of central Otago, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 34(2), 195-201. doi: 10.1080/00288306.1991.9514457

1990

Journal - Research Article

Stirling, M. W. (1990). The Old Man Range and Garvie Mountains: Tectonic geomorphology of the Central Otago peneplain, New Zealand. New Zealand Journal of Geology & Geophysics, 33, 233-243. doi: 10.1080/00288306.1990.10425681