Dunedin: 50 forward

Beyond the immediate doom-and-gloom headlines about business closures and redundancies, what might work be like for people in Dunedin up to 50 years into the future?

That is the question being asked by a Department of Management team led by Dr Sara Walton, with Dr Paula O'Kane, Dr Diane Ruwhiu, Virginia Cathro and Rachel Turner. They are working in partnership with the Dunedin City Council on the project.

"I started off researching sustainability and climate change and I was getting frustrated at the lack of vision out into the future as to what these things might mean for us," says Walton. "I talked to the others and we were all interested in some aspect of the future related to our research backgrounds."

The research team initially gathered existing information about New Zealand in the future, extracted various themes, ran a focus group and surveyed 40 experts living in Dunedin or with a business or personal connection with the city.

"We are trying to develop some scenarios of what Dunedin might look like, with a focus on some of the economic development and the businesses we are likely to see in Dunedin and some of the ways that people will be working."

"We are trying to develop some scenarios of what Dunedin might look like … and some of the ways that people will be working."

While some responses have been very gloomy, Cathro says others have pointed to a flourishing future. "If global transportation becomes more costly because of rising fuel prices and a higher carbon price, you will see smaller businesses in Dunedin being more competitive and developing more high-value, good-quality niche industries."

Ruwhiu is particularly encouraged by some of the responses regarding work-life balance. "I loved the advice people said they would give their children and their grandchildren in terms of education and preparedness for the future. They were talking about a holistic experience as you are growing up: learn the basics, but realise that life is so much bigger than just going out there and getting a job."

Walton says that while the Dunedin research is important in encouraging local people to take time out to think about where the city might be heading in the long term, it could also act as a pilot study. "The next thing we want to do is to look at New Zealand's place in the world in the future."