Preparing for climate change impact
Recently the New Zealand's government External Reporting Board (XRB) established standards to guide the climate-related disclosures of those entities legally required to report. While the tertiary education sector is not currently required to report, it is still good practice and will prepare the sector for any expansion of legal reporting requirements.
A group was formed in 2023 that includes all of the New Zealand Universities, Te Pūkenga, and three wānanga. The aim of the group was to answer the question:
“How will climate change impact Aotearoa New Zealand’s tertiary education sector between now and 2100?”
In alignment with the XRB standards and guidance a set of four diverse, but plausible climate futures were developed.
See the Tertiary Sector scenarios report alongside the other sectors working in parallel across Aotearoa New Zealand:
Visit the XRB sector-level scenario report
This climate scenarios report is a tool to help each institution with planning and strategy development. The scenarios are strategic provocations, rather than predictions. They cover a range of factors and deliberately diverge from business as usual to stretch thinking on how to respond to a variety of plausible futures. More extreme scenarios were considered but, ultimately, the narratives were developed to maintain plausibility and to support effective planning discussions.
The report is the result of a highly collaborative, cross-sector process. The core project team came together from four different institutions including the University of Otago. They were guided and supported by both an advisory group of sustainability practitioners and a governance group of senior leaders from across all universities, Te Pūkenga and wānanga.
The insights and ideas used to build the scenarios were sourced from over 100 sector stakeholders (students, staff, iwi, central and local government, business and civil society) who attended workshops across the country. The scenarios have been reviewed by the advisory group for usability and a range of academics with specialist disciplinary knowledge.
Four climate scenarios proposed
Four scenarios have been developed to consider both the physical impact of climate change and the societal response to those impacts. The scenarios which consider a future with low physical impacts describe the Aotearoa tertiary sector in a world where global warming has been kept to a minimum. In contrast, the scenarios which consider a future with high physical impacts describe the Aotearoa tertiary sector in a world where global warming exceeds three degrees by 2100.
The scenarios which consider a future where there is a planned societal response describe the Aotearoa tertiary sector in a world where all parts of society have proactively prepared themselves for the impacts of climate change. In contrast, the scenarios which consider a future where there is an unplanned societal response describe the Aotearoa tertiary sector in a world where the impacts of climate change are met reactively and the response lacks co-ordination.
Each scenario was also described on specific time horizons. In this case, we agreed on key years as 2040 and 2090, which aligns with NIWA ’s climate change scenarios.
The next step is to develop an understanding of the risks and opportunities these four scenarios would present University of Otago.