Journal articles
Cleghorn C, Mulder I, Macmillan A, Mizdrak A, Drew J, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Ni Mhurchu C. Can a greenhouse gas emissions tax on food also be healthy and equitable? A systematized review and modelling study from Aotearoa New Zealand. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2022;19:4421
Grout L, Mizdrak A, Nghiem N, Jones A, Blakely T, Ni Mhurchu C, Cleghorn C. The potential effect of real-world junk food and sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on population health, health system costs, and greenhouse gas emissions in New Zealand: a modelling study. BMJ Nutrition, Prevention & Health. 2022;e000376. doi: 10.1136/bmjnph-2021-000376
Jones AC, Grout L, Wilson N, Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL. The cost-effectiveness of a mass media campaign to promote smartphone apps for weight loss: an updated modeling study. JMIR Form Res 2022;6(4):e29291. https://formative.jmir.org/2022/4/e29291
Wilson N, Hoek J, Nghiem N, Summers J, Grout L, Edwards R. Modelling the impacts of tobacco denicotinisation on achieving the Smokefree 2025 goal in Aotearoa New Zealand. N Z Med J 2022;135(1548):65-76. https://journal.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/modelling-the-impacts-of-tobacco-denicotinisation-on-achieving-the-smokefree-2025-goal-in-aotearoa-new-zealand
Andersen P, Mizdrak A, Wilson N, Davies A, Bablani L, Blakely T. Disaggregating proportional multistate lifetables by population heterogeneity to estimate intervention impacts on inequalities. Popul Health Metrics 2022; 20(1). https://pophealthmetrics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12963-022-00282-7
Camacho X, Nedkoff L, Wright FL, Nghiem N, Buajitti E, Goldacre R, Rosella LC, Seminog O, Tan EJ, Hayes A, Hayen A, Wilson N, Blakely T, Clarke P. Relative contribution of trends in myocardial infarction event rates and case fatality to declines in mortality: an international comparative study of 1.95 million events in 80.4 million people in four countries. Lancet Public Health 2022;7: e229–39
Carvalho N, Sousa T, Mizdrak A, Jones A, Wilson N, Blakely T. Comparing Health Gains, Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of 100s of Interventions in Australia and New Zealand: An Online Interactive League Table. Popul Health Metr (in press).Preprint (Version 1) available at Research Square. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-1072911/v1
Grout L, Telfer K, Wilson N, Cleghorn C, Mizdrak A. Prescribing Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity Promotion in Primary Care: Modeling Study of Health Gain and Cost Savings. J Med Internet Res 2021;23(12):e31702. doi: 10.2196/31702
Blakely T, Sigglekow F, Irfan M, Mizdrak A, Dieleman J, Bablani L, Clarke P, Wilson N. Disease-related income and economic productivity loss: longitudinal analysis of individual-level data for all New Zealanders. PLoS Med 2021;18(11):e1003848. doi: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003848. https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1003848
Summers JA, Ait Ouakrim D, Wilson N, Blakely T. Updated health and cost impacts of electronic nicotine delivery systems, using recent estimates of relative harm for vaping compared to smoking. Nicotine Tob Res 2021;ntab178. https://doi.org/10.1093/ntr/ntab178
Wilson N, Hoek J, Nghiem N, Summers JA, Grout L, Edwards R. Preliminary High-Level Modelling Estimates of Impacts of Denicotinisation on Smoking Prevalence in Aotearoa New Zealand. medRxiv 2021;(23 August). https://medrxiv.org/cgi/content/short/2021.08.13.21262035v1
Wilson N, Grout L, Summers J, Jones AC, Mizdrak A, Nghiem N, Cleghorn C, Blakely T. Should prioritising health interventions be informed by modelling studies? The case of cancer control in Aotearoa New Zealand. N Z Med J. 2021;134(1531):101-113
Mizdrak A, Ding D, Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Richards J. Hitting the Target but Missing the Point? Modelling Health and Economic Impacts of Different Approaches to Meeting the Global Action Plan for Physical Activity Target. Sports Med (2021). 2021;51:815-823. doi: 10.1007/s40279-020-01398-2. https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s40279-020-01398-2
Blakely T, Moss R, Collins J, Mizdrak A, Singh A, Carvalho N, Wilson N, Geard N, Flaxman A. Proportional multistate lifetable modelling of preventive interventions: concepts, code and worked examples. Int J Epidemiol 2020;49:1624–1636. https://doi.org/10.1093/ije/dyaa132
Wilson N, Morenga LT, Mackay S, Gerritsen S, Cleghorn C, Jones AC, Swinburn B. Food taxes and subsidies to protect health: relevance to Aotearoa New Zealand. N Z Med J 2020;133(1511):71-85.
Blakely T, Cleghorn C, Mizdrak A, Waterlander W, Nghiem N, Swinburn B, Wilson N, Ni Mhurchu C. The effect of food taxes and subsidies on population health and health costs: a modelling study. Lancet Public Health 2020;5:e404-e413. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S246826672030116X (Open Access)
Mizdrak A, Telfer K, Direito A, Cobiac LJ, Blakely T, Cleghorn CL, Wilson N. Health Gain, Cost Impacts, and Cost-Effectiveness of a Mass Media Campaign to Promote Smartphone Apps for Physical Activity: Modeling Study. JMIR Mhealth Uhealth. 2020;8(6):e18014
Mizdrak, A., Cobiac, L.J., Cleghorn, C.L. Woodward A, Blakely T. Fuelling walking and cycling: Human powered locomotion is associated with non-negligible greenhouse gas emissions. Sci Rep 10 , 9196 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-66170-y
Blakely T, Cleghorn C, Petrović-van der Deen F, Cobiac LJ, Mizdrak A, Mackenbach JP, Woodward A, van Baal P, Wilson N. Prospective impact of tobacco eradication and overweight and obesity eradication on future morbidity and health-adjusted life expectancy: simulation study. J Epidemiol Community Health. 2020;74:354–361
Blakely T, Nghiem N, Genc M, Mizdrak A, Cobiac L, Mhurchu CN, Swinburn B, Scarborough P, Cleghorn C. Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: The case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity. PLoS One. 2020;15(3):e0230506
Jaine R, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, Blakely T. Cost-effectiveness of a low-dose computed tomography screening programme for lung cancer in New Zealand Lung Cancer. Lung Cancer. Published online: April 18, 2020
Drew J, Cleghorn C, Macmillan A, Mizdrak A. Healthy and Climate-Friendly Eating Patterns in the New Zealand Context. Environ Health Perspect, 128, no. 1 (2020): 017007
Nghiem N, Knight J, Mizdrak A, Blakely T, Wilson N. Preventive Pharmacotherapy for Cardiovascular Disease: A Modelling Study Considering Health Gain, Costs, and Cost-Effectiveness when Stratifying by Absolute Risk. Sci Rep. 2019;9(1):19562
Blakely T, Nghiem N, Genc M, Mizdrak A, Cobiac C, Ni Mhurchu C, Swinburn B, Scarborough P, Cleghorn C. Modelling the health impact of food taxes and subsidies with price elasticities: the case for additional scaling of food consumption using the total food expenditure elasticity. arXiv 2019: https://arxiv.org/abs/1909.13179
Mizdrak A, Blakely T, Cleghorn CL, Cobiac LJ. Potential of active transport to improve health, reduce healthcare costs, and reduce greenhouse gas emissions: A modelling study.PLoS One 2019;14(7):e0219316. (Related media release)
Wilson N, Davies A, Brewer N, Nghiem N, Cobiac L, Blakely T. Can cost-effectiveness results be combined into a coherent league table? Case study from one high-income country. Popul Health Metr 2019;17(1):10. doi: 10.1186/s12963-019-0192-x. https://pophealthmetrics.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12963-019-0192-x
Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Jones GT, Rush R, Khashram M, Roake J, Blakely A. Health gains, costs and cost‐effectiveness of a population‐based screening programme for abdominal aortic aneurysms. Br J Surg 2019;106(8):1043-1054. doi:10.1002/bjs.11169
Nghiem N, Leung W, Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Wilson N. Mass media promotion of a smartphone smoking cessation app: Modelled health and cost-saving impacts.BMC Public Health2019;19(1):283. doi: 10.1186/s12889-019-6605-8
Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Ni Mhurchu C, Wilson N, Neal B, Eyles H. Estimating the health benefits and cost-savings of a cap on the size of single serve sugar-sweetened beverages. Prev Med 2019;120:150-156
Cleghorn C, Wilson N, Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Blakely T. Health Benefits and Cost-Effectiveness From Promoting Smartphone Apps for Weight Loss: Multistate Life Table ModelingJMIR mHealth and uHealth 2019;7(1):e11118
Petrović-van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Crothers A, Cleghorn CL, Gartner C, Blakely T. The potential health and cost impacts of legalizing domestic sale of vaporized nicotine products at a country level: A modelling study. Epidemiol 2019;30(3):396-404
Wilson N, Petrović-van der Deen FS, Edwards R, Waa A, Blakely T. Modelling the number of quitters needed to achieve New Zealand's Smokefree 2025 goal for Māori and non-Māori.N Z Med J2018;131(1487):30-37
Wilson N, Jones AC, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Preventing cardiovascular disease in New Zealand: Making better use of statins but also tobacco control, changing the food supply and other strategies.N Z Med J 2018;131(1484):61-67
Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Atkinson J, Dielemann J, Clarke P. Health system costs for individual and comorbid noncommunicable diseases: an analysis of publicly-funded health events from New Zealand.PLoS Med 2018;16(1): e1002716.https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pmed.1002716
Petrović-van der Deen FS, Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Cleghorn C, Cobiac L, Wilson N. Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies combined with cessation advice: a modelling study of the future smoking prevalence, health and cost impacts.Tob Control. 2019;28(6):643-650. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054600
Deverall E, Kvizhinadze G, Pega F, Blakely T, Wilson N. Exercise programmes to prevent falls among older adults: modelling health gain, cost-utility and equity impacts. Inj Prev 2019;25:258-263. [Editor's choice]
Cleghorn CL, Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, van der Deen FS, Nghiem N, Cobiac LJ, Wilson N. Impact of increasing tobacco taxes on working-age adults: short-term health gain, health equity and cost savings. Tob Control 2018 Oct;27(e2):e167-e170
Pearson AL, Cleghorn CL, van der Deen FS, Cobiac LJ, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Wilson N. Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.Tob Control 2017;26:579-585. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2015-052846
Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL, Leung W, Nair N, van der Deen FS, Blakely T, Wilson N. A national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media: Modelling the health gain, health equity, and cost-utility.Tob Control. 2018;27:434–441
McLeod M, Kvizhinadze G, Boyd M, Barendregt J, Sarfati D, Wilson N, Blakely T. Colorectal cancer screening: How health gains and cost-effectiveness vary by ethnic group, the impact on health inequalities, and the optimal age-range to screen.Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev. 2017;26:1391-1400
van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Cleghorn CL, Kvizhinadze G, Cobiac LJ, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Impact of five tobacco endgame strategies on future smoking prevalence, population health and health system costs: two modelling studies to inform the tobacco endgame. Tob Control. 2018;27:278-286
Teng AM, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, McLeod M, Wilson N, Blakely T. A screening program to test and treat for Helicobacter pylori infection: Cost-utility analysis by age, sex and ethnicity. BMC Infect Dis 2017;17:156
Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Blakely T. Cancer Care Coordinators to Improve Tamoxifen Persistence in Breast Cancer: How Heterogeneity in Baseline Prognosis Impacts on Cost-Effectiveness. Value in Health. 2016; 19: 936-944
Pearson A, Cleghorn C, van der Deen FS, Cobiac L, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Wilson N. Tobacco retail outlet restrictions: health and cost impacts from multistate life-table modelling in a national population.Tob Control. 2016;0:1-7. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol
Collinson L, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, McLeod M, Blakely T. Economic evaluation of single-fraction versus multiple-fraction palliative radiotherapy for painful bone metastases in breast, lung and prostate cancer.J Med Imaging Radiat Oncol 2016 60(5):650-660. doi: 10.1111/1754-9485.12467
Nghiem N, Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn CL, Wilson N. The health gains and cost savings of dietary salt reduction interventions, with equity and age distributional aspects. BMC Public Health 2016;16:423. doi: 10.1186/s12889-016-3102-1
Briggs A.D.M, Wolstenholme J, Blakely T, Scarborough P. Choosing an epidemiological model structure for the economic evaluation of non-communicable disease public health interventions. Popul Health Metr 2016 14:17 doi: 10.1186/s12963-016-0085-1
Leung W, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, Blakely T. Adjuvant Trastuzumab in HER2-Positive Early Breast Cancer by Age and Hormone Receptor Status: A Cost-Utility Analysis. PLoS Med 2016; 13(8): e1002067. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1002067
Pega F, Kvizhinadze G, Blakely T, Atkinson J, Wilson N. Home safety assessment and modification to reduce injurious falls in community-dwelling older adults: Cost-utility and equity analysis. Inj Prev 2016;22:420-426.
Wilson N, Nghiem N, Eyles H, Ni Mhurchu C, Shields E, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn C, Blakely T. Modeling Health Gains and Cost Savings for Ten Dietary Salt Reduction Targets. Nutr J 2016;15:44. doi: 10.1186/s12937-016-0161-1.
Wilson N, Nghiem N, Ryan S, Cleghorn C, Nair N, Blakely T. Designing low-cost "heart healthy bread": Optimization using linear programing and 15-country comparison. BMC Nutrition 2016;2:23
Wilson N, Selak V, Blakely T, Knight J, Nghiem N, Leung W, Clarke P, Jackson R. Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators.N Z Med J 2016;129:1431:85-92
Blakely T, Atkinson J, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod H, Davies A, Wilson N. Updated New Zealand health system cost estimates from health events by sex, age and proximity to death: further improvements in the age of 'big data'. N Z Med J 2015;128(1422):13-23
Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Cleghorn CL, Pearson AL, van der Deen FS, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Wilson N. Health, health inequality and cost impacts of annual increases in tobacco tax: Multistate lifetable modeling in New Zealand. PLoS Med 2015;12(7): e1001856. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001856
- Related media release
- Related Public Health Expert blog
- This work has been used in NZ Ministry of Health documents (eg, see p10 in this report).
Blakely T, Collinson L, Kvizhinadze G, Nair N, Foster R, Dennett E, Sarfati D. Cancer care coordinators in stage III colon cancer: a cost-utility analysis. BMC Health Services Research 2015;15:306. doi: 10.1186/s12913-015-0970-5
Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N, Nair N, McLeod M, Blakely T. How much might a society spend on life-saving interventions at different ages while remaining cost-effective? Estimates using New Zealand health system costs, morbidity, and mortality data. Popul Health Metr 2015;13:15. doi:10.1186/s12963-015-0052-2
Broad JB, Ashton T, Gott M, McLeod H, Davis PB, Connolly MJ. Likelihood of residential aged care use in later life: a simple approach to estimation with international comparison. Aust NZ J Public Health. 2015; Online; doi: 10.1111/1753-6405.12374
Blakely T, Atkinson J, Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N, Clarke P. Patterns of cancer costs in a country with detailed individual data. Med Care 2015; 53: 302-309. doi:10.1097/MLR.0000000000000330
Nghiem N, Blakely T, Cobiac LJ, Pearson AL, Wilson N. Health and economic impacts of eight different dietary salt reduction interventions. PLoS One 2015;10(4):e0123915.
Ikeda T, Cobiac L, Wilson N, Carter K, Blakely T. What will it take to get to under 5% smoking prevalence by 2025? Modelling in a country with a smokefree goal. Tob Control 2015; 24: 139-145. doi:10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2013-051196
- Update: van der Deen FS, Wilson N. An update on smoking prevalence projections to 2025 and beyond in New Zealand. Tob Control [e-letter published online May 6, 2015].
- Note - Update on future smoking prevalence projections to 2025 and beyond (using smoking prevalence data from the 2006 and 2013 censuses)
van der Deen FS, Ikeda T, Cobiac L, Wilson N, Blakely T. Projecting future smoking prevalence to 2025 and beyond in New Zealand using smoking prevalence data from the 2013 Census. N Z Med J 2014; 127(1406): 1-9.
Hadorn D, Kvizhinadze G, Collinson L, Blakely T. Use of Expert Knowledge Elicitation to Estimate Parameters in Health Economic Decision Models. International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care. 2014; 30 (04): 461-68.
Cobiac LJ, Ikeda T, Nghiem N, Blakely T, Wilson N. Modelling the implications of regular increases in tobacco taxation in the tobacco endgame. Tob Control 2015;24:e154–60.
Pearson AL, van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Cobiac L and Blakely T. Theoretical impacts of a range of major tobacco retail outlet reduction interventions: Modelling results in a country with a smokefree nation goal. Tob Control 2015;24-e32-e38.
Pearson AL, Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N, Smith M, Canfell K, Blakely T. Is expanding HPV vaccination programs to include school-aged boys likely to be value-for-money? A cost-utility analysis in a country with an existing school-girl program. BMC Infect Dis 2014; 14:351
McLeod M, Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Harris R. Why equal treatment is not always equitable: the impact of existing ethnic health inequalities in cost-effectiveness modelling. Popul Health Metr 2014; 12:15
Blakely T, Atkinson J, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod H, Wilson N. Health system costs by sex, age and proximity to death, and implications for estimation of future expenditure. N Z Med J 2014;127(1393):12-25
Webber-Foster R, Kvizhinadze G, Rivalland G, Blakely T. Cost-effectiveness analysis of docetaxel versus paclitaxel in adjuvant treatment of regional breast cancer in New Zealand. Pharmacoeconomics published online first. DOI: 10.1007/s40273-014-0154-x
Blakely T, Kvizhinadze G, Karvonen T, Pearson AL, Smith M, Wilson N. Cost-effectiveness and equity impacts of three HPV vaccination programmes for school-aged girls in New Zealand. Vaccine 2014; 32: 2645–2656
Pearson AL, Winter PR, McBreen B, Stewart G, Roets R, Nanayakkara A, Nutsford D, Bowie C, Donnellan N, Wilson N. Obtaining fruit and vegetables for the lowest prices: Pricing survey of different outlets and geographical analysis of competition effects. PLoS ONE 2014; 9(3): e89775. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0089775 - [additional comments on "halo pricing"].
Blakely T, Wilson N, Kaye-Blake B. Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages to curb future obesity and diabetes epidemics. PLoS Med 2014;11:e1001583. DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001583.
Nghiem N, Wilson N, Genç M, Blakely T. Understanding Price Elasticities to Inform Public Health Research and Intervention Studies: Key Issues. Am J Public Health 2013; [E-publication 12 September 2013]: e1–e8
Collinson L, Foster R, Stapleton M, Blakely T. Cancer care coordinators: what are they and what will they cost?NZ Med J 2013; 126(1381): 1-12
Costilla R, Tobias M, Blakely T. The burden of cancer in New Zealand: a comparison of incidence and DALY metrics and its relevance for ethnic disparities. Aust N Z J Public Health 2013; 37(3): 218-225
Foster RH, Wilson N. Review of the evidence for the potential impact and feasibility of substituting saturated fat in the New Zealand diet. Aust N Z J Public Health 2013; 37(4): 329-336
Wilson N, Nghiem N, Ni Mhurchu C, Eyles H, Baker MG, Blakely T. Foods and dietary patterns that are healthy, low-cost, and environmentally sustainable: A case study of optimization modeling for New Zealand.PLoS One 2013; 8(3): e59648
Wilson N, Nghiem N, Foster RH. The feasibility of achieving low-sodium intake in diets that are also nutritious, low-cost, and have familiar meal components. PLoS One 2013; 8(3): e58539 [See media release]
Wilson N, Thomson G, Edwards R, Blakely T. Potential Advantages and Disadvantages of an Endgame Strategy: A “Sinking Lid” on Tobacco Supply.Tob Control 2013; 22: i18-i21
Nghiem N, Carter M-A, Wilson N. Emergency food storage for organisations and citizens in New Zealand: Results of optimisation modelling. NZ Med J 2012; 125(1367): 49-60
Wilson N, Nghiem N, Higgins A, Kvizhinadze G, Baker MG, Blakely T. A national estimate of the hospitalisation costs for the influenza (H1N1) pandemic in 2009. NZ Med J 2012; 125(1365): 1-5
Wilson N, Nghiem N, Foster R, Cobiac L, Blakely T. Estimating the cost of new public health legislation. Bull WHO 2012; 90: 532-539 [For a file with input costs and results in NZ$ see here]
Wilson N, Blakely T, Foster R, Hadorn D, Vos T. Prioritizing risk factors to identify preventive interventions for economic assessment. Bull WHO 2012; 90: 88–96
Letters
Teng A, Puloka V, Signal L, Wilson N. Pacific countries lead the way on sugary drinks taxes: lessons for New Zealand. N Z Med J 2021;134(1543):137-140.
Petrović-van der Deen FS, Wilson N. Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies as an endgame strategy: are pharmacies likely to opt in? Aust N Z J Public Health 2018;42:219-220.
van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Blakely T. A continuation of 10% annual tobacco tax increases until 2020: Modelling results for smoking prevalence by sex and ethnicity. N Z Med J 2016;129(1441):94-7.
Edwards R, Blakely T, van der Deen F. Modelling of tobacco endgame interventions: a response.N Z Med J 2015; 128 (1426): 116-118
Wilson N, Nghiem N, Eyles H, Ni Mhurchu C, Cobiac LJ, Pearson AL, Cleghorn C, Blakely T. Possible impact of the Tick Programme in New Zealand on selected nutrient intakes: Tentative estimates and methodological complexities. N Z Med J 2014;127(1399):85-88.
van der Deen FS, Wilson N, Blakely T. Possible Methodological Reason for the Finding That “Neither Tax Increase nor Reimbursement Reduced Health Disparities”: Comment on the Article by Over et al. Nicotine Tob Res 2014;16:1030.
van der Deen FS, Pearson AL, Wilson N. Ending the sale of cigarettes at US pharmacies. JAMA 2014; 312(5): 559
Wilson N, Morgan J, Baker MG. Evidence for effectiveness of a national HPV vaccination programme: national prescription data from New Zealand. Sex Transm Infect 2014;90:103
Wilson N, van der Deen F, Pearson A, Cobiac L, Blakely T. Expert ranking of tobacco control interventions for health economic modelling research in New Zealand. NZ Med J 2013; 126(1368)
Wilson N, Nghiem N. Low sodium diets can be both nutritious and low cost. BMJ 2012; 344: e3837 [copy available on request]
Wilson N, Thomson G, Blakely T. Use of pricing and tax interventions for protecting health: potential relevance for New Zealand of recent international developments.NZ Med J 2011; 124(1342): 100-103
Protocols and Position Statements
Authorship Policy for Research Outputs from BODE3
Blakely T, Foster R, Wilson N, and BODE³ team. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness (BODE3) Study Protocol. Version 2.1. Technical Report No.3. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, December 2012.
The following protocols contain more detail on specific issues, falling beneath the overall protocol above.
Foster R, Blakely T, Wilson N, ODea D. Protocol for Direct Costing of Health Sector Interventions for Economic Modelling (Including Event Pathways). Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 12. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, July 2012.
Blakely T, Costilla R, Soeberg M. Cancer Excess Mortality Rates Over 2006-2026 for ABC-CBA. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 10. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, May 2012.
Kvizhinadze G, Ikeda T, Blakely T. Modelling Options for ABC-CBA. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 17. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, May 2012.
Foster R. Literature Search and Data Synthesis Methods for Estimating Inputs for Health Economic Modelling. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.7. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2011.
Nghiem N, Wilson N, Blakely T. Price Elasticities for Health Economic Modelling of Food Pricing Interventions in Australia and New Zealand. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.9. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2011.
Foster R, Preval N, Blakely T, Wilson N, O'Dea D. Costing of Pharmaceuticals in New Zealand for Health Economic Studies: Backgrounder and Protocol for Costing. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.6. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, September 2011.
Costilla R, Atkinson J, Blakely T. Incorporating Ethnic and Deprivation Variation to Cancer Incidence Estimates over 2006-2026 for ABC-CBA. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.5. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, September 2011.
Kvizhinadze G, Blakely T. Projected NZ Life Tables. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.4. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, April 2011.
Reports
Davies A, Blakely T, Cleghorn C. Technical Report for BODE3 Pre-diabetes Multistate Lifetable Model (PDF). Wellington: University of Otago, April 2022.
Wilson N, Nghiem N. Brief Report: Trends in Health Economic Analysis and Evidence for the Impact of BODE³ Work on Epidemiological Modelling and Health Economics in Aotearoa New Zealand (up to 30 March 2021). Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, Mar 2021.
Jones AC, Wilson N. Literature review of local interventions to prevent alcohol-related injuries: Infographic. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity, and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (BODE3). Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, July 2020. This work was funded by the Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC).
Jones AC, Wilson N. Literature review of local interventions to prevent alcohol-related injuries. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity, and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, July 2020.
Telfer K, Wilson, N, Direito A, Mizdrak A. Technical report for BODE³ intervention parameter selection: Mobile health for physical activity. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Technical Report no. 38. Wellington, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2020.
Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Jones A, Kvizhinadze G, Mizdrak A, Nghiem N, Mhurchu C, Wilson N. Feasible diet intervention options to improve health and save costs for the New Zealand population. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2019.
Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity, and Cost-Effectiveness Programme (2019) Disease Inputs used for Multi-State Life Table Modelling (Version 1.0).
Mizdrak A, Blakely T, Cleghorn C, Cobiac, L. Technical report for BODE³ active transport and physical activity model. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Technical Report no. 18. Wellington, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2018.
Cleghorn C, Blakely T, Nghiem N, Mizdrak A, Wilson N. Technical report for BODE³ DIET intervention and Multistate Lifetable Models. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Technical Report no. 16. Wellington, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2017.
Wilson N, Blakely T, Nghiem N, Cleghorn C, Kvizhinadze G, Atkinson J, Nair N, Mizdrak A, van der Deen F. Guide for ensuring high quality of modelling outputs in the BODE3 programme. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington, Department of Public Health, May 2017.
Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, Atkinson J, Blakely T. Cost off-sets used in BODE³ multistate lifetable models. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Technical Report no. 15. Wellington, Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2016.
Pega F, Wilson N. A systematic review of economic analyses of the health impact of structural housing interventions: Protocol. Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.
Wilson N. Background Technical Details on Mandatory Interventions Used in Sodium Reduction Modelling for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.
Wilson N, Nghiem N. Background Report for BODE³ Modelling on Estimating the Impact of the Tick Programme in New Zealand (a Heart Health Food Endorsement Programme). Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.
Wilson N. Estimating the modelling parameters around dietary counselling for preventing cardiovascular disease in New Zealand. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2014.
Nghiem N, Wilson N, Blakely T. Technical Background to the Cardiovascular Disease Model used in the BODE³ Programme. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, Updated 2015.
Nghiem N, Wilson N, Blakely T. Validation Issues Relating to the Cardiovascular Disease Model Developed in the BODE³ Programme. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, March 2014.
Holmes E, Blakely T, Laking G. Approaches to Prioritisation and Health Technology Assessment in New Zealand. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Working Paper Version 1. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, April 2014.
Foster R, Wilson N. Determination of Effect Size for Modelling in BODE³: A Worked Example of the Effect of Reducing Dietary Saturated Fat Intake on Cardiovascular Events. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost-Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No. 8. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, June 2012.
Blakely T, Costilla R, Tobias M. The Burden of Cancer New Zealand 2006.Wellington: Ministry of Health and University of Otago, 2010.
Wilson N and NZ-ACE Prevention Team. Possible NZACE-Prevention Interventions for Stakeholders to Critique. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.2. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2010.
Wilson N, Blakely T, Foster R, Hadorn D, Vos T. What are the Priority Health Risk Factors for Researching Preventive Interventions as Part of NZACE-Prevention? Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity and Cost Effectiveness Programme, Technical Report No.1. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, November 2010.
MBIE-funded and related publications
Jones AC, Grout L, Wilson N, Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL. The cost-effectiveness of a mass media campaign to promote smartphone apps for weight loss: an updated modeling study. JMIR Form Res 2022;6(4):e29291. https://formative.jmir.org/2022/4/e29291
Nghiem N, Wilson N. Potential impact of COVID-19 related unemployment on increased cardiovascular disease in a high-income country: Modeling health loss, cost and equity. PLoS ONE 2021;16(5): e0246053. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0246053. [Building on the MBIE-supported CVD model].
Nghiem N, Mizdrak A, Wilson N. Increased unemployment from the COVID-19 pandemic, what might be the adverse impacts on cardiovascular disease in Aotearoa/New Zealand and how might this be prevented? N Z Med J 2020;133(1526):89-98. https://www.nzma.org.nz/journal-articles/increased-unemployment-from-the-covid-19-pandemic-what-might-be-the-adverse-impacts-on-cardiovascular-disease-in-aotearoa-new-zealand-and-how-might-this-be-prevented. [Building on our MBIE-supported CVD work].
Boyd M, Kvizhinadze G, Kho A, Wilson G, Wilson N. Cataract surgery for falls prevention and improving vision: modelling the health gain, health system costs and cost-effectiveness in a high-income country. Inj Prev. 2020;26(4):302-309. doi:10.1136/injuryprev-2019-043184. [Building on the MBIE-supported falls model].
Cleghorn C, Jones A, Freeman L, Wilson N, Updated Cost-effectiveness Modelling of a Behavioural Weight Loss Intervention Involving a Primary Care Provider. Wellington: University of Otago, October 2020.
Jones AC, Steele C, Wilson N, Cleghorn C. Report on Literature Review of Dietary Counselling for Weight Loss Interventions to Inform Updated BODE3 Modelling. Burden of Disease Epidemiology, Equity, and Cost-Effectiveness Programme. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, July 2020.
Cleghorn C, Mizdrak A, Wilson N. Health gains, health inequality impacts, and health system cost savings – associated with modelled reductions in type 2 diabetes incidence. Wellington: University of Otago, July 2020.
Boyd M, Kho A, Wilson N, Wilson G. Expediting cataract surgery in New Zealand is cost-effective for falls prevention and improving vision – but what else should we be doing? N Z Med J 2019;132(1501):73-78. [Building on the MBIE-supported falls model].
Cleghorn CL, Wilson N, Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Blakely T. Health benefits and costs of weight-loss dietary counselling by nurses in primary care: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Public Health Nutr 2019;(E-pub 14 Oct):1-11. doi: 10.1017/S1368980019002945
Cleghorn C, Wilson N, Nair N, Kvizhinadze G, Nghiem N, McLeod M, Blakely T . Health benefits and cost-effectiveness from promoting smartphone apps for weight loss: Multi-state life-table modeling. JMIR mHealth and uHealth (JMU). 2019;7(1):e11118
Wilson N, Jones AC, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Preventing cardiovascular disease in New Zealand: Making better use of statins but also tobacco control, changing the food supply and other strategies.NZ Med J 2018;131(1484):61-67.
Wilson N, Kvizhinadze G, Pega F, Nair N, Blakely T. Home modification to reduce falls at a health district level: modeling health gain, health inequalities and health costs. PLoS One. 2017;12:e0184538.
Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL, Leung W, Nair N, van der Deen FS, Blakely T, Wilson N. A national quitline service and its promotion in the mass media: modelling the health gain, health equity and cost-utility.Tob Control 2017;(E-publication 24 July).
Patel R, Sulzberger L, Li G, Mair J, Morley H, Ng-Wai Shing M, O'Leary C, Prakash A, Robilliard N, Rutherford M, Sharpe C, Shie C, Sritharan L, Turnbull J, Whyte I, Yu H, Cleghorn C, Leung W, Wilson N. Smartphone apps for weight loss and smoking cessation: Quality ranking of 120 apps. N Z Med J 2015; 128:1421
Patel R, Sulzberger L, Li G, Mair J, Morley H, Ng-Wai Shing M, O'Leary C, Prakash A, Robilliard N, Rutherford M, Sharpe C, Shie C, Sritharan L, Turnbull J, Whyte I, Yu H, Cleghorn C, Leung W, Wilson N. Online Report: Smartphone apps for weight loss and smoking cessation: Quality ranking of 120 apps (full methods and results). Wellington: University of Otago, 2015.
Related work
Nghiem N, Teng A, Cleghorn C, McKerchar C, Wilson N. Using Household Economic Survey Data to Assess Food Expenditure Patterns and Trends in a Country with Notable Health Inequities. Research Square (Pre-Print). https://www.researchsquare.com/article/rs-1048731/v1 DOI:10.21203/rs.3.rs-1048731/v1
Hoenink JC, Waterlander WE, Mackenbach JD, Ni Mhurchu C, Wilson N, Beulens JWJ, Nghiem N. Impact of taxes on purchases of close substitute foods: Analysis of cross-price elasticities using data from a randomized experiment. Nutr J 2021;20:75. doi: 10.1186/s12937-021-00736-y.
Smith M, Stanley J, Signal L, Barr M, Chambers T, Balina A, Ni Mhurchu C, Wilson N. Children's healthy and unhealthy beverage availability, purchase and consumption: A wearable camera study. Appetite. 2019;133:240-251.
Teng A, Snowdon W, Win Tin ST, Genç M, Na'ati E, Puloka V, Signal L, Wilson N. Progress in the Pacific on sugar-sweetened beverage taxes: systematic review of policy changes from 2000 to 2019. Aust N Z J Public Health. 2021;45(4):376-84. https://doi.org/10.1111/1753-6405.13123
Teng AM, Genç M, Herman J, Signal L, Areai D, Wilson N. Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on price, import and sale volumes in an island: interrupted time series analysis. Public Health Nutr 2021;24(7):1828–1835.
Teng A, Buffière B, Genç M, Latavao T, Puloka V, Signal L, Wilson N. Equity of expenditure changes associated with a sweetened-beverage tax in Tonga: repeated cross-sectional household surveys. BMC Public Health 2021;21(1):149. doi: 10.1186/s12889-020-10139-z.
Hoek J, Edwards R, Thomson GW, Waa A, Wilson N. Tobacco excise taxes: a health and social justice measure? Tob Control 2021;30:258–259.
Teng A, Puloka V, Genc M, Filimoehala O, Latu C, Lolomana'ia M, Osornprasop S, Signal L, Wilson N. Sweetened beverage taxes and changes in beverage price, imports and manufacturing: interrupted time series analysis in a middle-income country. Int J Behav Nutr Phys Act 2020;17:90.
Singh A, Wilson N, Blakely T. Simulating future public health benefits of tobacco control interventions – A systematic review of models. Tob Control 2021;30;460-470.
Steele C, Eyles H, Te Morenga L, Ni Mhurchu C, Cleghorn C. (2020). Dietary patterns associated with meeting the WHO free sugars intake guidelines. Public Health Nutr, 2020 1-12. doi:10.1017/S1368980019004543
Bablani L, Ni Mhurchu C, Neal B, Skeels CL, Staub KE, Blakely T. The impact of voluntary front-of-pack nutrition labelling on packaged food reformulation: A difference-in-differences analysis of the Australasian Health Star Rating scheme. PLoS Med 2020;17(11):e1003427.
Singh A, Petrović-van der Deen FS, Carvalho N, Lopez AD, Blakely T. Impact of tax and tobacco-free generation on health-adjusted life years in the Solomon Islands: a multistate life table simulation. Tob Control 2020;29(4):388-397. doi: 10.1136/tobaccocontrol-2018-054861.
Blakely T, Gartner C. Tobacco taxes have mixed effects on socioeconomic disparities. Lancet Public Health 2019;4(12):e595-e596.
Teng A, Blakely T, Scott N, Jansen R, Masters-Awatere B, Krebs J, Oetzel J. What protects against pre-diabetes progressing to diabetes? Observational study of integrated health and social data. Diabetes Res Clin Pract 2019;148:119-129.
Teng AM, Jones AC, Mizdrak A, Signal L, Genç M, Wilson N. Impact of sugar-sweetened beverage taxes on purchases and dietary intake: Systematic review and meta-analysis. Obes Rev 2019:(E-publication 19 June).
Wilson N, Cleghorn CL, Cobiac LJ, Mizdrak A, Nghiem N. Achieving healthy and sustainable diets: A review of the results of recent studies using mathematical optimization. Adv Nutr 2019;10(Suppl_4):S389-S403.
Waterlander WE, Jiang Y, Nghiem N, Eyles H, Wilson N, Cleghorn C, Genç M, Swinburn B, Ni Mhurchu C, Blakely T. The effect of food price changes on consumer purchases: a randomised experiment. Lancet Public Health 2019;4:e394–405. https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S2468-2667%2819%2930105-7 (Open Access)
Boyd M, Mansoor OD, Baker MG, Wilson N. Economic evaluation of border closure for a generic severe pandemic threat using New Zealand Treasury methods. Aust N Z J Public Health 2018;42:444-446.
Petrović-van der Deen FS, Wilson N. Restricting tobacco sales to only pharmacies as an endgame strategy: are pharmacies likely to opt in? Aust NZ J Public Health2018;42:219-220.
Blakely T, Disney G, Valeri L, Atkinson J, Teng A, Wilson N, Gurrin L. Socio-economic and tobacco mediation of ethnic inequalities in mortality over time: repeated census mortality cohort studies, 1981 to 2011.Epidemiology 2018; 29(4): 506–516
Eyles H, Jiang Y, Blakely T, Neal B, Crowley J, Cleghorn C, Ni Mhurchu C. Five year trends in the serve size, energy, and sodium contents of New Zealand fast foods: 2012 to 2016. Nutr J 2018;17(1):65.
Teng A, Atkinson J, Disney G, Wilson N, Blakely T. Changing smoking-mortality association over time and across social groups: National census-mortality cohort studies from 1981 to 2011. Sci Rep 2017;7:11465.
Boyd M, Baker MG, Mansoor OD, Kvizhinadze G, Wilson N. Protecting an island nation from extreme pandemic threats: Proof-of-concept around border closure as an intervention. PLoS One. 2017;12:e0178732.
Disney G, Teng A, Atkinson J, Wilson N, Blakely T. Changing ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand over 30 years;linked to cohort studies with 68.9 million person-years of follow-up. Popul Health Metr 2017;15:15.DOI 10.1186/s12963-017-0132
Teng AM, Blakely T, Ivory V, et al. Living in areas with different levels of earthquake damage and association with risk of cardiovascular disease: a cohort-linkage study.The Lancet Planetary Health 2017;1(6):e242-e253.
Sarfati D, Shaw C, McLeod M, Blakely T, Bissett I. Screening for colorectal cancer: spoiled for choice?N Z Med J 2016; 129(1440):120-8.
Cleghorn CL, Wilson N. The benefits of constraining processed meat and red meat consumption in New Zealand: a public health perspective. NZ Med J 2016;129 (1445):115-121.
Ramachandran N, Wilson N, Wilson GA. There is a need to know if New Zealand's visual acuity screening programme in school-age children is justified. N Z Med J 2016; 129(1440):137-138
Waterlander WE, Blakely T, Nghiem N, Cleghorn CL, Eyles H, Genc M, Wilson N, Jiang Y, Swinburn B, Jacobi L, Michie J, Ni Mhurchu C. Study protocol: combining experimental methods, econometrics and simulation modelling to determine price elasticities for studying food taxes and subsidies (The Price ExaM Study). BMC Public Health 2016; 16:601. DOI: 10.1186/s12889-016-3277-5
Pega F, Wilson N. A systematic review of health economic analyses of housing improvement interventions and insecticide-treated bednets in the home. PLoS ONE 2016;11(6): e0151812
Ball J, Stanley J, Wilson N, Blakely T, Edwards R. Smoking prevalence in New Zealand from 1996-2015: A critical review of national data sources to inform progress toward the smokefree 2025 goal.N Z Med J 2016; 129(1439):11-22.
Delany L, Thomson G, Wilson N, Edwards R. Key design features of a new smokefree law to help achieve the Smokefree Aotearoa New Zealand 2025 goal.N Z Med J 2016;129(1439):68-76.
Wilson N, Edwards R, Hoek J, Thomson G, Jaine R. Could New Zealand's law on “New Psychoactive Substances” provide lessons for achieving the Smokefree 2025 Goal? [Letter] N Z Med J 2016;149(1432):94-6.
Wilson N, Selak V, Blakely T, Knight J, Nghiem N, Leung W, Clarke P, Jackson R. Decision-making in an era of cancer prevention via aspirin: New Zealand needs updated guidelines and risk calculators. N Z Med J 2016;129(1431):85-92.
Ni Mhurchu C, Eyles H, Genc M, Scarborough P, Rayner M, Mizdrak A, Nnoaham K, Blakely T. Effects of Health-Related Food Taxes and Subsidies on Mortality from Diet-Related Disease in New Zealand: An Econometric-Epidemiologic Modelling Study. PLoS One 2015;10(7):e0128477
Wilson N, Blakely T. The high health burden from alcohol in New Zealand and the need for an appropriate government response [Editorial]. N Z Med J 2015;128(1409):6-8
Ni Mhurchu C, Eyles H, Genc M, Blakely T. Twenty percent tax on fizzy drinks could save lives and generate millions in revenue for health programmes in New Zealand. NZ Med J 2014;127(1389):92-5.
Pearson A, Wilson N. Optimising locational access of deprived populations to farmers' markets at a national scale: one route to improved fruit and vegetable consumption?PeerJ 2013;1:e94. doi: 10.7717/peerj.94
Eyles H, Ni Mhurchu C, Nghiem N, Blakely T. Food Pricing Strategies, Population Diets, and Non-Communicable Disease: A Systematic Review of Simulation Studies. PLoS Med 2012; 9(12): e1001353. doi:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001353
Contributions to the National Emergency around the COVID-19 Pandemic by BODE3 Staff
Contributions to the National Emergency around the COVID-19 Pandemic by BODE3 Staff (PDF)
How BODE3 modelling work is rated internationally
The BODE3 tobacco modelling work has been ranked the highest quality out of 25 tobacco models in a UK study published in 2022.
BODE3 models regularly feature in systematic reviews eg, BODE3 studies on dietary sodium (Hyseni et al., 2017) (Schorling et al., 2017); on dietary policies (Emmert-Fees et al., 2021) and 14 BODE3 studies involving on equity (Avancena & Prosser, 2021).
CONTACT US
BODE³ Programme
Department of Public Health
University of Otago, Wellington
PO Box 7343
Wellington South 6242
New Zealand
Tel +64 4 918 5072
Email bode3@otago.ac.nz