Publications and presentations of NZCMS

Journal articles

Blakely T, Disney G, Valeri L, Atkinson J, Teng A, Wilson N, Gurrin L. Socio-economic and tobacco mediation of ethnic inequalities in mortality over time: repeated census mortality cohort studies, 1981 to 2011. Epidemiology (in press).

Teng A, Atkinson J, Disney G, Wilson N, Blakely T. Changing smoking-mortality association over time and across social groups: National census-mortality cohort studies from 1981 to 2011. Sci Rep September 2017.

Disney G, Teng AM, Atkinson J, Wilson N, Blakely T. Changing ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand over 30 years: linked cohort studies with 68.9 million person-years of follow-up.Popul Health Metr 2017;15:15. DOI 10.1186/s12963-017-0132-

Teng AM, Atkinson J, Disney G, Wilson N, Blakely T. Changing socioeconomic inequalities in cancer incidence and mortality:Cohort study with 54 million person-years follow-up 1981 - 2011. Int J Cancer 2017;140:1360-1361

Teng AM, Atkinson J, Disney G, Wilson, N, Sarfati D, McLeod M, Blakely T. Ethnic inequalities in cancer incidence and mortality:census-linkedcohort studies with 87 million years of person-time follow-up. BMC Cancer 2016; 16(755). doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2781-4

Jatrana S, Richardson K, Blakely T, Dayal S. Does Mortality Vary between Asian Subgroups in New Zealand: An Application of Hierarchical Bayesian Modelling. PLoS ONE 2014; 9(8): e105141. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0105141

Jatrana S, Blakely T. Socio-economic inequalities in mortality persist into old age in New Zealand: study of all 65 years plus, 2001-04. Ageing and Society 2014; 34(6). doi:10.1017/S0144686X12001195

Tan L, Blakely T. Mortality by ethnic group to 2006: is extending census-mortality linkage robust? NZ Med J 2012; 125(1357)

• Download the web annex tables relevant to this publication
• Download the web annex figures relevant to this publication

Hales S, Blakely T, Foster RH, Baker MG, Howden-Chapman P. Seasonal patterns of mortality in relation to social factors. J Epidemiol Community Health 2010; doi:10.1136/jech.2010.111864

Hales S, Blakely T, Woodward A. Air pollution and mortality in New Zealand: cohort study.J Epidemiol Community Health 2010; doi:10.1136/jech.2010.112490

Hajat A , Blakely T, Dayal S and Jatrana S. Do New Zealand's immigrants have a mortality advantage? Evidence from the New Zealand Census-Mortality Study. Ethnicity & Health 2010; 15(5):531-547

Tan L, Blakely T, Atkinson J. Ethnic counts on mortality and census data 2001-06: New Zealand census-mortality study update. NZ Med J 2010;123(1320):37-44.

Blakely T, Carter K, Wilson N, Edwards R, Woodward A, Thomson G, et al. If nobody smoked tobacco in New Zealand from 2020 onwards, what effect would this have on ethnic inequalities in life expectancy?NZ Med J 2010; 123(1320)

• Download the Excel spreadsheets relevant to this publication

Carter K, Blakely T, Soeberg M. Trends in survival and life expectancy by ethnicity, income and smoking in New Zealand: 1980s to 2000s. NZ Med J 2010; 123(1320)

Below are the Excel spreadsheets relevant to this publication:

• life_tabs_smoking
• life_tabs_ethnicity
• life_tabs_income
• life_tabs_ethnicity_income
• life_tabs_ethnicity_smoking
• life_tabs_income_smoking

Richardson K, Blakely T, Young J, Graham P, Tobias M. Do ethnic and socio-economic inequalities in mortality vary by region in New Zealand? An application of hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Social Science & Medicine 2009; 69: 1252–1260

Tobias M, Blakely T, Matheson D, Rasanathan K, Atkinson J. Changing trends in indigenous inequalities in mortality: lessons from New Zealand.International Journal of Epidemiology 2009; 38(6): 1711-22.

Blakely T, Richardson K, Young J, Callister P, Didham R. Does mortality vary between Pacific groups in New Zealand? Estimating Samoan, Cook Island Maori, Tongan, and Niuean mortality rates using hierarchical Bayesian modelling.NZ Med J 2009; 122(1307)

Tobias M, Yeh L-C. How much does health care contribute to health gain and to health inequality? Trends in amenable mortality in New Zealand 1981-2004.Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2009; 33(1):70-78.

Jatrana S, Blakely T. Ethnic inequalities in mortality among the elderly in New Zealand.Australian and New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2008; 32(5):437-443

Blakely T, Atkinson J, Fawcett J. Ethnic counts on mortality and census data (mostly) agree for 2001-2004: New Zealand Census-Mortality Study update. NZ Med J 2008; 121(1281):58-62.

D'Souza A J, Blakely T, Woodward A. The effect of eradicating poverty on childhood unintentional injury mortality in New Zealand: a cohort study with counterfactual modelling.J Epidemiol Community Health 2008; 62:899–904.

Blakely T, Tobias M, Atkinson J. Inequalities in mortality during and after restructuring of the New Zealand economy: repeated cohort studies.British Medical Journal (International Edition) 2008; 336(7640):371. - See the BMJ webpage for additional tables.

Callister P, Didham R, Potter D, Blakely T. Measuring Ethnicity in New Zealand: Developing Tools for Health Outcomes Analysis. Ethnicity & Health; 12(4):299-320.

Hill S, Blakely T, Kawachi I, et al. Mortality among Lifelong Nonsmokers Exposed to Secondhand Smoke at Home: Cohort Data and Sensitivity Analyses.Am. J. Epidemiol 2007; 165(5):530-540.

Fawcett J, Blakely T. Cancer is overtaking cardiovascular disease as the main driver of socio-economic inequalities in mortality: New Zealand, (1981-99).J Epidemiol Community Health 2007;61(1):59-66.

Wilson N, Blakely T, Tobias M. What potential has tobacco control for reducing health inequalities? The New Zealand situation.International Journal for Equity in Health 2006; 5:14.

Wilson N, Blakely T, Tobias M. Correction: what potential has tobacco control for reducing health inequalities? The New Zealand situation.International Journal for Equity in Health 2006; 5:16.

Young J, Graham P, Blakely T. Modeling the relation between socioeconomic status and mortality in a mixture of majority and minority ethnic groups.American Journal of Epidemiology 2006; 164(3): 282-291.

Wamala S, Blakely T, Atkinson J. Trends in absolute socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Sweden and New Zealand: a 20-year gender perspective. BMC Public Health 2006, 6:164.

Blakely T, Fawcett J, Hunt D, Wilson N. What is the contribution of smoking and socioeconomic position to ethnic inequalities in mortality in New Zealand?Lancet 2006; 368(9529):44-53.

Shaw C, Blakely T, Sarfati D, Fawcett J, Peace J. Trends in colorectal cancer mortality by ethnicity and socio-economic position in New Zealand, 1981-99: one country, many stories.Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2006; 30(1):64-70.

Sarfati D, Blakely T, Shaw C, Cormack D, Atkinson J. Patterns of disparity: ethnic and socio-economic trends in breast cancer mortality in New Zealand.Cancer Causes and Control June 2006; 17(5).

Blakely T, Wilson N. Shifting dollars, saving lives: What might happen to mortality rates, and socio-economic inequalities in mortality rates, if income was redistributed?Social Science and Medicine April 2006, 62(8).

Shaw C, Blakely T, Crampton P, Atkinson J. The contribution of causes of death to socioeconomic inequalities in child mortality: New Zealand 1981–1999. NZ Med J 2005; 118(1227).

Shaw C, Blakely T, Sarfati D, Fawcett J, Hill S. Varying evolution of the New Zealand lung cancer epidemic by ethnicity and socioeconomic position (1981-1999).NZ Med J 2005;118(1213):U1411.

Hunt D, Blakely T, Woodward A, Wilson N. The smoking-mortality association varies over time and by ethnicity in New Zealand.Int J Epidemiol 2005; 34(5):1020-1028.

Blakely T, Tobias M, Robson B, Ajwani S, Bonne M, Woodward A. Widening ethnic mortality disparities in New Zealand, 1981-99.Social Science and Medicine 2005; 61(10):2233–2251.

Fawcett J, Blakely T, Kunst A. Are Mortality Differences and Trends by Education Any Better or Worse in New Zealand? A Comparison Study with Norway, Denmark and Finland, 1980–1990s.European Journal of Epidemiology 2005; 20(8).

Blakely T, Wilson N. The contribution of smoking to inequalities in mortality by education varies over time and by sex: two national cohort studies, 1981–84 and 1996–99.Int J Epidemiol 2005; 34(5):1054–1062.

Hill S, Blakely T, Fawcett J, Howden-Chapman P. Could mainstream anti-smoking programmes increase inequalities in tobacco use? New Zealand data from 1981-1996.Australian & New Zealand Journal of Public Health 2005; 29(3) (abstract)

Shaw C, Blakely T, Atkinson J, Crampton P. Do social and economic reforms change socioeconomic inequalities in child mortality? A case study: New Zealand 1981-1999.J Epidemiol Community Health 2005; 59(8):638-644.

Blakely T, Fawcett J. Bias measuring mortality gradients by occupational class in New Zealand.NZ Med J 2005; 118(1208).

Callister P, Blakely T. Ethnic classification, intermarriage, and mortality: some methodological issues in relation to ethnic comparisons in Aotearoa/ New Zealand. Working paper, November 2004.

Blakely T, Hunt D, Woodward A. Confounding by socio-economic position remains after adjusting for neighbourhood deprivation. An example using smoking and mortality.Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health 2004; 58:1030–1031.

Hill S, Blakely T, Kawachi I, Woodward W. Mortality among "never smokers" living with smokers: Two cohort studies, 1981-4 and 1996-9.British Medical Journal 2004; 328(7446):988-989

Woodward A, Hill S, Blakely T. Deaths caused by second-hand smoke: estimates are consistent.Tobacco Control 2004; 13:319–320.

Blakely T, Kawachi I, Atkinson J, Fawcett J. Income and mortality: the shape of the association and confounding. New Zealand Census-Mortality Study, 1981-99.International Journal of Epidemiology 2004; 33:1–10.

Blakely T, Ajwani S, Robson B, Tobias M, Bonne M. Decades of Disparity: widening ethnic mortality gaps from 1980 to 1999.NZ Med J 2004; 117(1199).

Blakely T, Dew K. Ethnicity, acculturation and health: who's to judge?NZ Med J 2004; 117(1188).

Blakely T, Collings S, Atkinson J. Unemployment and suicide. Evidence for a causal association?J Epidemiol Community Health 2003;57:594-600. See also Commentaries Section in same issue of JECH J Epidemiol Community Health 2003;57:553-561.

Ajwani S, Blakely T, Robson B, Atkinson J, Kiro C. Unlocking the numerator-denominator bias III: adjustment ratios by ethnicity for 1981-1999 mortality data. The New Zealand Census-Mortality Study. NZ Med J 2003; 116 (1175).

Blakely T, Atkinson J, Kiro C, Blaiklock A, D'Souza A. Child mortality, socioeconomic position, and one-parent families: independent associations and variation by age and cause of death.International Journal of Epidemiology 2003; 32:410-418.

Blakely T, Atkinson J, O'Dea D. No association of income inequality with adult mortality within New Zealand: a multi-level study of 1.4 million 25-64 year olds.J Epidemiol Community Health 2003;57:279-284.

Blakely T, Salmond C. Probabilistic record linkage and a method to calculate the positive predictive value.International Journal of Epidemiology 2002;31:1246-1252.

Blakely T, Robson B, Woodward A. Measuring Māori health status accurately - more needs doing.NZ Med J 2002;115;149-150.

Blakely T, Robson B, Atkinson J, Sporle A, Kiro C. Unlocking the numerator-denominator bias. I: Adjustment ratios by ethnicity for 1991-94 mortality data. NZ Med J 2002;115:39-43.
Unlock I Abstract, Unlock I Tables

Blakely T, Kiro C, Woodward A. Unlocking the numerator-denominator bias. II: Adjustments to mortality rates by ethnicity and deprivation during 1991-94. NZ Med J 2002;115:43-48.
Unlock II Abstract, Unlock II Tables

Blakely T, Woodward A, Pearce N, Salmond C, Kiro C, Davis P. Socio-economic factors and mortality among 25-64 year olds followed from 1991 to 1994: the New Zealand Census-Mortality Study.NZ Med J 2002;115:93-7.

Blakely T, Pearce N. Socio-economic position is more than just NZDep. NZ Med J 2002;115:109-11.

Blakely T, Salmond C, Woodward A. Anonymous linkage of New Zealand mortality and census data. Aust NZ J Public Health 2000;24:92-95.

Blakely T, Woodward A. Counterfactual challenges to social epidemiology. Australasian Epidemiologist 2000;7:28-31.

Howden-Chapman P, Blakely T, Blaiklock A, Kiro C. Closing the health gap. NZ Med J 2000;113:301-302.

Reports

Sloane K, Atkinson J, Bastiampillai N, Blakely T. Record linkage of 2006 census records and 2006-2011 mortality and cancer registration records: unlock ratios and linkage weights. New Zealand Census Mortality Study Technical Report No.8. Wellington: University of Otago, Wellington, 2015

Tan L, Blakely T, Atkinson J. Record linkage of census and mortality 2001-06 records: unlock ratios 2004-06, and linkage weights 2001-06. New Zealand Census Mortality Study Technical Report No.7. Wellington: University of Otago, Wellington, 2010

Blakely T, Richardson K, Young J, Graham P, Tobias M, Callister P, Didham R, Atkinson J. Does mortality vary between Pacific groups? Estimating Samoan, Cook Island Maori, Tongan and Niuean mortality rates using hierarchical Bayesian modelling. Official Statistics Research Series, 5, 2009

Fawcett J, Atkinson J, Herd P, Blakely T. Record Linkage of Census and Mortality 2001-04 Records: New Zealand Census Mortality Study Technical Report No.6. Wellington: Department of Public Health, University of Otago, Wellington, 2008

Blakely T, Tobias M, Atkinson J, Yeh L-C, Huang K. Tracking Disparity: Trends in ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, 1981–2004. Wellington: Ministry of Health, 2007

Fawcett J, Blakely T, Robson B, Tobias M, Pakipaki N, Harris R. Decades of Disparity III: Ethnic and socioeconomic inequalities in mortality, New Zealand 1981-1999. Wellington: Ministry of Health, 2006

Blakely T, Fawcett J, Atkinson J, Tobias M, Cheung J. Decades of Disparity II: Socioeconomic mortality trends in New Zealand, 1981-1999. Wellington: Ministry of Health and University of Otago, 2005

Ajwani S, Blakely T, Robson B, Tobias M, Bonne M. Decades of Disparity: Ethnic mortality trends in New Zealand 1980-1999. Wellington: Ministry of Health and University of Otago, 2003 - Appendices 2-5 of Ethnic Mortality Trends report
This report jointly authored with the Ministry of Health describes divergent mortality trends by ethnicity from 1980 to 1999.

Fawcett J, Blakely T, Atkinson J. Weighting the 81, 86, 91 & 96 Census-Mortality Cohorts to Adjust for Linkage Bias. NZCMS Technical Report No.5 Wellington: Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, 2002

Ajwani S, Blakely T, Robson B, Atkinson J, Fawcett J, Kiro C. Unlocking the Numerator-Denominator Bias for the 1980s and 1990s. NZCMS Technical Report No.4 Wellington: Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, 2002

Hill S, Atkinson J, Blakely T. Anonymous Record Linkage of Census and Mortality Records: 1981, 1986, 1991, 1996 Census Cohorts. NZCMS Technical Report No.3 Wellington: Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine and Health Sciences, University of Otago, 2002

Blakely T. The New Zealand Census-Mortality Study: Socioeconomic inequalities and adult mortality 1991-94. Wellington: Ministry of Health, 2002

Blakely T, Atkinson J. Unlocking the Numerator-Denominator Bias, 1991-94 deaths. NZCMS Technical Report No.2 Wellington: Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine, University of Otago, 2001

Blakely T, Salmond C, Woodward A. Anonymous record linkage of 1991 census records and 1991-94 mortality records. NZCMS Technical Report No.1 Wellington: Department of Public Health, Wellington School of Medicine, University of Otago, 1999

Theses

The theses contained on this website are covered under the New Zealand Copyright Act 1994. Material from these theses may be freely reproduced providing the author and the original website address are acknowledged.

Fawcett, J. Socioeconomic Variation in Mortality in New Zealand 1981-1999: Cross-National and Times Series Comparisons [Doctorate], University of Otago 2005.

• Socioeconomic Variation in Mortality in New Zealand 1981-1999: Cross-National and Times Series Comparisons (Part 1)
• Socioeconomic Variation in Mortality in New Zealand 1981-1999: Cross-National and Times Series Comparisons (Part 2)
• Socioeconomic Variation in Mortality in New Zealand 1981-1999: Cross-National and Times Series Comparisons (Part 3)
• Socioeconomic Variation in Mortality in New Zealand 1981-1999: Cross-National and Times Series Comparisons (Part 4)

Shaw, C. Socioeconomic Gradients in Child Mortality: New Zealand 1981-1999 [Masters], University of Otago, 2004.

D'Souza, A. Childhood Injury Mortality 1991–1994: Modelling the Impact of Eliminating Child Poverty [Masters], University of Otago, 2003.

Hunt D. Mortality from smoking in New Zealand - the association between cigarette smoking and mortality from all causes, ischaemic heart disease and stroke in New Zealanders aged 25-74 years, 1981-1984 and 1996-1999 [Masters], University of Otago, 2003.

Hill S. Passive smoking and mortality: exposure to second-hand smoke in the home and mortality amongst 45-77 year old never-smokers in the New Zealand Census-Mortality Study [Masters], University of Otago, 2003.

Blakely T. Socio-Economic Factors and Mortality Among 25-64 Year Olds. The New Zealand Census-Mortality Study [Doctorate], University of Otago, 2001.

Presentations and posters

Atkinson J, Blakely T, Collings S. Suicide and Socio-Economic Factors: Results from the New Zealand Census-Mortality Study 1981-2004. Asia Pacific Regional Conference of the International Association for Suicide Prevention, 17th - 20th November 2010, Brisbane. [Poster]

Blakely T, Tobias M, Atkinson J, Yeh L-C, Huang K. Tracking Disparity 1981-2004 [PowerPoint]

Blakely T, Robson B, Tobias M, Ajwani S, Bonne M. Decades of Disparity: Ethnic mortality trends in New Zealand 1980-1999 [Poster]

Media: press releases and clippings

University of Otago press release 9th June 2006. Making New Zealand smoke-free will reduce ethnic death rate inequalities. Latest Otago University research published in world's leading medical journal.

University of Otago press release 5th December 2005. Smoking shown to increase unequal death rates between rich and poor. Make New Zealand smoke-free, researchers urge.

University of Otago press release 20th April 2005. Death rates fell for all income groups during the 1980s and 1990s ... but relative gaps in death rates between rich and poor still widened.

University of Otago press release 5th April 2004. Second-hand smoking increases risk of adult death by 15%. New Zealand researchers publish world's largest study on second-hand smoking and mortality.

University of Otago Press Release 30th March 2004 Ethnic Gaps in Life Expectancy appear to be closing again Latest statistics suggest that Maori may be benefiting from social, health policies.

Crampton P, Blakely T, Howden-Chapman P. Health system funding is already 'needs-based' Dominion Post Newspaper, Tuesday March 9th 2004.

Oram R. The folly behind Don Brash's words Sunday Star Times Newspaper, Sunday March 7th 2004.

University of Otago Press Release 3rd March 2004. Income and Ethnicity Both Critical in Health Funding: Study New research shows Mäori still dying younger - regardless of

Howden-Chapman P, Crampton P, Rochford T, Matheson A, Signal L, Blakely T, Thompson G, Martin J, Robinson J. A need for more Māori and Pacific doctors Dominion Post Newspaper, Thursday March 4th 2004.

Managh C. Income, race affect death rates Dominion Post Newspaper, Thursday March 4th 2004.

Blakely T, Robson B. Gaps - who's to blame? Dominion Newspaper, Friday August 1st 2003.

Birnie L. Suicide linked to being out of work Dominion Newspaper, Monday June 11th 2001, Page 3.